Arid
DOI10.1007/s11269-015-1010-2
Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis
Tabari, Hossein1; Zamani, Reza2; Rahmati, Hossein3; Willems, Patrick1,4
通讯作者Tabari, Hossein
来源期刊WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN0920-4741
EISSN1573-1650
出版年2015
卷号29期号:9页码:3441-3457
英文摘要

Drought is a slow and creeping phenomenon that occurs more frequently in arid and semi-arid regions. In recent decades, among natural disasters influencing human societies the number or frequency of drought event has increased more than others. In this context, the prediction of drought intensity, duration and frequency can help to take the necessary precautions and reduce drought risk. This study employs Markov chains of different orders (0, 1, 2 and 3) to analyze hydrological drought characteristics. Hydrological drought is identified based on the streamflow drought index (SDI) at 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time scales using data from 21 hydrometric stations located in the Karkheh River Basin in Iran. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), first-order Markov chain models are adequate to reproduce the statistical structure of SDI-based hydrological droughts. Moreover, the steady state probabilities and expected residence time of drought severity for all time scales increase as the degree of severity decreases. The results also indicate that the expected frequency of drought occurrence is higher for smaller time scales (i.e., 3-month and 6-month).


英文关键词Streamflow drought index Markov chain Steady state probabilities Expected residence time Drought frequency
类型Article
语种英语
国家Belgium ; Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000355266800025
WOS关键词KARKHEH RIVER-BASIN ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; CANADIAN RIVERS ; IRAN ; MODEL ; SPI
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/190768
作者单位1.Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Div, BE-3001 Leuven, Belgium;
2.Shahid Chamran Univ Ahvaz, Fac Water Sci Engn, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources Engn, Ahwaz, Iran;
3.Shahid Chamran Univ Ahvaz, Fac Water Sci Engn, Dept Irrigat & Drainage Engn, Ahwaz, Iran;
4.Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Tabari, Hossein,Zamani, Reza,Rahmati, Hossein,et al. Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis[J],2015,29(9):3441-3457.
APA Tabari, Hossein,Zamani, Reza,Rahmati, Hossein,&Willems, Patrick.(2015).Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,29(9),3441-3457.
MLA Tabari, Hossein,et al."Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 29.9(2015):3441-3457.
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