Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s11269-015-1010-2 |
Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis | |
Tabari, Hossein1; Zamani, Reza2; Rahmati, Hossein3; Willems, Patrick1,4 | |
通讯作者 | Tabari, Hossein |
来源期刊 | WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
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ISSN | 0920-4741 |
EISSN | 1573-1650 |
出版年 | 2015 |
卷号 | 29期号:9页码:3441-3457 |
英文摘要 | Drought is a slow and creeping phenomenon that occurs more frequently in arid and semi-arid regions. In recent decades, among natural disasters influencing human societies the number or frequency of drought event has increased more than others. In this context, the prediction of drought intensity, duration and frequency can help to take the necessary precautions and reduce drought risk. This study employs Markov chains of different orders (0, 1, 2 and 3) to analyze hydrological drought characteristics. Hydrological drought is identified based on the streamflow drought index (SDI) at 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time scales using data from 21 hydrometric stations located in the Karkheh River Basin in Iran. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), first-order Markov chain models are adequate to reproduce the statistical structure of SDI-based hydrological droughts. Moreover, the steady state probabilities and expected residence time of drought severity for all time scales increase as the degree of severity decreases. The results also indicate that the expected frequency of drought occurrence is higher for smaller time scales (i.e., 3-month and 6-month). |
英文关键词 | Streamflow drought index Markov chain Steady state probabilities Expected residence time Drought frequency |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium ; Iran |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000355266800025 |
WOS关键词 | KARKHEH RIVER-BASIN ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; CANADIAN RIVERS ; IRAN ; MODEL ; SPI |
WOS类目 | Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/190768 |
作者单位 | 1.Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Div, BE-3001 Leuven, Belgium; 2.Shahid Chamran Univ Ahvaz, Fac Water Sci Engn, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources Engn, Ahwaz, Iran; 3.Shahid Chamran Univ Ahvaz, Fac Water Sci Engn, Dept Irrigat & Drainage Engn, Ahwaz, Iran; 4.Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tabari, Hossein,Zamani, Reza,Rahmati, Hossein,et al. Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis[J],2015,29(9):3441-3457. |
APA | Tabari, Hossein,Zamani, Reza,Rahmati, Hossein,&Willems, Patrick.(2015).Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,29(9),3441-3457. |
MLA | Tabari, Hossein,et al."Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 29.9(2015):3441-3457. |
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