Arid
DOI10.1007/s11269-014-0889-3
Copulas-Based Drought Evolution Characteristics and Risk Evaluation in a Typical Arid and Semi-Arid Region
Huang, Shengzhi1,2; Huang, Qiang1,2; Chang, Jianxia1,2; Chen, Yutong1,2; Xing, Li3,4; Xie, Yangyang1,2
通讯作者Huang, Shengzhi
来源期刊WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN0920-4741
EISSN1573-1650
出版年2015
卷号29期号:5页码:1489-1503
英文摘要

The Wei River Basin, a typical arid and semi-arid region, is frequently attacked by droughts, which heavily limits its sustainable development of society and economy. Therefore, the main motivation of this study is to investigate the drought evolution characteristics and risk evaluation in the basin, which is crucial for drought warning, water resources management as well as agricultural development. The modified Mann-Kendall test trend method was used to capture the trend of the severity and duration of historical drought events, and the persistence of droughts was analyzed based on the Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis. Additionally, the Morlet wavelet analysis was utilized to calculate the period of dry and wet condition, and copulas were applied to calculate the joint return period of two typical scenarios. The main results are as follows: (1) the whole basin has an obviously dry trend, especially in autumn and winter; furthermore, the months with a wet trend are primarily concentrated in July and August; (2) the persistence of droughts is strong, indicating that droughts in the near future may be persistent; (3) the average "or" and "and" joint return periods under scenario (1) where drought duration is 6 months and drought severity is 4 are approximately 15.6 and 28.9 years, respectively, while those under scenario (2) where drought duration is 8 months and drought severity is 6 are approximately 34.9 and 53.1 years, respectively. In general, the drought risk of the northwestern basin is larger than that of the southeastern basin.


英文关键词Drought evolution characteristics Drought risk assessment Copula The Bayesian copula selection method The Wei River Basin
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000349361000007
WOS关键词PEARL RIVER-BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; INDEXES ; TRENDS
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Water Resources
来源机构北京大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/190761
作者单位1.State Key Lab Base Ecohydraul Engn Arid Area, Xian, Peoples R China;
2.Xian Univ Technol, Xian 710048, Peoples R China;
3.Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China;
4.Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Lab Climate & Ocean Atmosphere Studies, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Huang, Shengzhi,Huang, Qiang,Chang, Jianxia,et al. Copulas-Based Drought Evolution Characteristics and Risk Evaluation in a Typical Arid and Semi-Arid Region[J]. 北京大学,2015,29(5):1489-1503.
APA Huang, Shengzhi,Huang, Qiang,Chang, Jianxia,Chen, Yutong,Xing, Li,&Xie, Yangyang.(2015).Copulas-Based Drought Evolution Characteristics and Risk Evaluation in a Typical Arid and Semi-Arid Region.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,29(5),1489-1503.
MLA Huang, Shengzhi,et al."Copulas-Based Drought Evolution Characteristics and Risk Evaluation in a Typical Arid and Semi-Arid Region".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 29.5(2015):1489-1503.
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