Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s11269-014-0889-3 |
Copulas-Based Drought Evolution Characteristics and Risk Evaluation in a Typical Arid and Semi-Arid Region | |
Huang, Shengzhi1,2; Huang, Qiang1,2; Chang, Jianxia1,2; Chen, Yutong1,2; Xing, Li3,4; Xie, Yangyang1,2 | |
通讯作者 | Huang, Shengzhi |
来源期刊 | WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
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ISSN | 0920-4741 |
EISSN | 1573-1650 |
出版年 | 2015 |
卷号 | 29期号:5页码:1489-1503 |
英文摘要 | The Wei River Basin, a typical arid and semi-arid region, is frequently attacked by droughts, which heavily limits its sustainable development of society and economy. Therefore, the main motivation of this study is to investigate the drought evolution characteristics and risk evaluation in the basin, which is crucial for drought warning, water resources management as well as agricultural development. The modified Mann-Kendall test trend method was used to capture the trend of the severity and duration of historical drought events, and the persistence of droughts was analyzed based on the Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis. Additionally, the Morlet wavelet analysis was utilized to calculate the period of dry and wet condition, and copulas were applied to calculate the joint return period of two typical scenarios. The main results are as follows: (1) the whole basin has an obviously dry trend, especially in autumn and winter; furthermore, the months with a wet trend are primarily concentrated in July and August; (2) the persistence of droughts is strong, indicating that droughts in the near future may be persistent; (3) the average "or" and "and" joint return periods under scenario (1) where drought duration is 6 months and drought severity is 4 are approximately 15.6 and 28.9 years, respectively, while those under scenario (2) where drought duration is 8 months and drought severity is 6 are approximately 34.9 and 53.1 years, respectively. In general, the drought risk of the northwestern basin is larger than that of the southeastern basin. |
英文关键词 | Drought evolution characteristics Drought risk assessment Copula The Bayesian copula selection method The Wei River Basin |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000349361000007 |
WOS关键词 | PEARL RIVER-BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; INDEXES ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Water Resources |
来源机构 | 北京大学 |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/190761 |
作者单位 | 1.State Key Lab Base Ecohydraul Engn Arid Area, Xian, Peoples R China; 2.Xian Univ Technol, Xian 710048, Peoples R China; 3.Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China; 4.Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Lab Climate & Ocean Atmosphere Studies, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Shengzhi,Huang, Qiang,Chang, Jianxia,et al. Copulas-Based Drought Evolution Characteristics and Risk Evaluation in a Typical Arid and Semi-Arid Region[J]. 北京大学,2015,29(5):1489-1503. |
APA | Huang, Shengzhi,Huang, Qiang,Chang, Jianxia,Chen, Yutong,Xing, Li,&Xie, Yangyang.(2015).Copulas-Based Drought Evolution Characteristics and Risk Evaluation in a Typical Arid and Semi-Arid Region.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,29(5),1489-1503. |
MLA | Huang, Shengzhi,et al."Copulas-Based Drought Evolution Characteristics and Risk Evaluation in a Typical Arid and Semi-Arid Region".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 29.5(2015):1489-1503. |
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