Arid
DOI10.1007/s10113-014-0685-x
Impact of predicted changes in rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide on maize and wheat yields in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
Muluneh, Alemayehu1,2; Biazin, Birhanu3; Stroosnijder, Leo1; Bewket, Woldeamlak4; Keesstra, Saskia1
通讯作者Muluneh, Alemayehu
来源期刊REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN1436-3798
EISSN1436-378X
出版年2015
卷号15期号:6页码:1105-1119
英文摘要

This study assesses potential impacts of climate change on maize and wheat yields in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. We considered effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and changes in rainfall during the main (Kiremt) and the short (Belg) rainfall cropping seasons during the two future periods (2020-2049 and 2066-2095). The MarkSimGCM daily weather generator was used to generate projected rainfall and temperature data using the outputs from ECHAM5 general circulation model and ensemble mean of six models under A2 (high) and B1 (low) emission scenarios. Crop yield simulations were made with the FAO’s AquaCrop model. The projected rainfall during Kiremt increases by 12-69 % while rainfall during Belg decreases by 20-68 %. The combined effect of elevated CO2 and projected climate factors increases maize yield by up to 59 % in sub-humid/humid areas of the CRV, but could result in a decrease of up to 46 % in the semiarid areas under ECHAM5 model. However, the maize yield increases in all parts of the CRV under the ensemble mean of models. Wheat yield shows no significant response to the projected rainfall changes, but increases by up to 40 % due to elevated CO2. Our results generally suggest that climate change will increase crop yields in the sub-humid/humid regions of the CRV. However, in the semi-arid parts the overall projected climate change will affect crop yields negatively.


英文关键词Climate change Rainfall Belg Kiremt Elevated CO2 Crop yield
类型Article
语种英语
国家Netherlands ; Ethiopia
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000358294000014
WOS关键词FAO CROP MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; AQUACROP MODEL ; RAINY-SEASON ; DRY SPELL ; VARIABILITY ; DROUGHT ; AFRICA ; TRENDS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/190137
作者单位1.Wageningen Univ, Soil Phys & Land Management Grp, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands;
2.Hawassa Univ, Sch Biosyst & Environm Engn, Hawassa, Ethiopia;
3.Int Livestock Res Inst, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;
4.Univ Addis Ababa, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Muluneh, Alemayehu,Biazin, Birhanu,Stroosnijder, Leo,et al. Impact of predicted changes in rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide on maize and wheat yields in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia[J],2015,15(6):1105-1119.
APA Muluneh, Alemayehu,Biazin, Birhanu,Stroosnijder, Leo,Bewket, Woldeamlak,&Keesstra, Saskia.(2015).Impact of predicted changes in rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide on maize and wheat yields in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,15(6),1105-1119.
MLA Muluneh, Alemayehu,et al."Impact of predicted changes in rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide on maize and wheat yields in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 15.6(2015):1105-1119.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Muluneh, Alemayehu]的文章
[Biazin, Birhanu]的文章
[Stroosnijder, Leo]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Muluneh, Alemayehu]的文章
[Biazin, Birhanu]的文章
[Stroosnijder, Leo]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Muluneh, Alemayehu]的文章
[Biazin, Birhanu]的文章
[Stroosnijder, Leo]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。