Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1098/rspb.2015.1383 |
Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria | |
Siraj, Amir S.1,2; Bouma, Menno J.3,4; Santos-Vega, Mauricio5; Yeshiwondim, Asnakew K.6; Rothman, Dale S.2; Yadeta, Damtew7; Sutton, Paul C.1,8; Pascual, Mercedes5,9 | |
通讯作者 | Siraj, Amir S. |
来源期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
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ISSN | 0962-8452 |
EISSN | 1471-2954 |
出版年 | 2015 |
卷号 | 282期号:1820 |
英文摘要 | A better understanding of malaria persistence in highly seasonal environments such as highlands and desert fringes requires identifying the factors behind the spatial reservoir of the pathogen in the low season. In these ’unstable’ malaria regions, such reservoirs play a critical role by allowing persistence during the low transmission season and therefore, between seasonal outbreaks. In the highlands of East Africa, the most populated epidemic regions in Africa, temperature is expected to be intimately connected to where in space the disease is able to persist because of pronounced altitudinal gradients. Here, we explore other environmental and demographic factors that may contribute to malaria’s highland reservoir. We use an extensive spatio-temporal dataset of confirmed monthly Plasmodium falciparum cases from 1995 to 2005 that finely resolves space in an Ethiopian highland. With a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and a generalized linear mixed model that includes a spatially structured random effect, we demonstrate that population density is important to disease persistence during the low transmission season. This population effect is not accounted for in typical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease, but is consistent in part with a more complex functional form of the force of infection proposed by theory for vector-borne infections, only during the low season as we discuss. As malaria risk usually decreases in more urban environments with increased human densities, the opposite counterintuitive finding identifies novel control targets during the low transmission season in African highlands. |
英文关键词 | malaria persistence reservoir |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA ; England ; Spain ; Ethiopia ; Australia |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000368095200002 |
WOS关键词 | SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ; TRANSMISSION ; ETHIOPIA ; MODEL ; RISK ; URBANIZATION ; DYNAMICS ; DISEASE ; VECTOR ; EPIDEMICS |
WOS类目 | Biology ; Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology |
WOS研究方向 | Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology |
来源机构 | University of London |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/189949 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Denver, Dept Geog & Environm, Denver, CO 80208 USA; 2.Univ Denver, Frederick S Pardee Ctr Int Futures, Josef Korbel Sch Int Studies, Denver, CO 80208 USA; 3.Univ London, London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1 E7HT, England; 4.Univ Barcelona, Catalan Inst Climate Sci IC3, Barcelona 08005, Spain; 5.Univ Chicago, Dept Ecol & Evolut, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; 6.PATH Malaria Control & Eliminat Partnership Afric, Addis Ababa 1110, Ethiopia; 7.Oromia Reg Hlth Bur, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; 8.Univ S Australia, Sch Nat & Built Environm, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, Australia; 9.Howard Hughes Med Inst, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Siraj, Amir S.,Bouma, Menno J.,Santos-Vega, Mauricio,et al. Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria[J]. University of London,2015,282(1820). |
APA | Siraj, Amir S..,Bouma, Menno J..,Santos-Vega, Mauricio.,Yeshiwondim, Asnakew K..,Rothman, Dale S..,...&Pascual, Mercedes.(2015).Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria.PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,282(1820). |
MLA | Siraj, Amir S.,et al."Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria".PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES 282.1820(2015). |
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