Arid
DOI10.1098/rspb.2015.1383
Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria
Siraj, Amir S.1,2; Bouma, Menno J.3,4; Santos-Vega, Mauricio5; Yeshiwondim, Asnakew K.6; Rothman, Dale S.2; Yadeta, Damtew7; Sutton, Paul C.1,8; Pascual, Mercedes5,9
通讯作者Siraj, Amir S.
来源期刊PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
ISSN0962-8452
EISSN1471-2954
出版年2015
卷号282期号:1820
英文摘要

A better understanding of malaria persistence in highly seasonal environments such as highlands and desert fringes requires identifying the factors behind the spatial reservoir of the pathogen in the low season. In these ’unstable’ malaria regions, such reservoirs play a critical role by allowing persistence during the low transmission season and therefore, between seasonal outbreaks. In the highlands of East Africa, the most populated epidemic regions in Africa, temperature is expected to be intimately connected to where in space the disease is able to persist because of pronounced altitudinal gradients. Here, we explore other environmental and demographic factors that may contribute to malaria’s highland reservoir. We use an extensive spatio-temporal dataset of confirmed monthly Plasmodium falciparum cases from 1995 to 2005 that finely resolves space in an Ethiopian highland. With a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and a generalized linear mixed model that includes a spatially structured random effect, we demonstrate that population density is important to disease persistence during the low transmission season. This population effect is not accounted for in typical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease, but is consistent in part with a more complex functional form of the force of infection proposed by theory for vector-borne infections, only during the low season as we discuss. As malaria risk usually decreases in more urban environments with increased human densities, the opposite counterintuitive finding identifies novel control targets during the low transmission season in African highlands.


英文关键词malaria persistence reservoir
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA ; England ; Spain ; Ethiopia ; Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000368095200002
WOS关键词SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ; TRANSMISSION ; ETHIOPIA ; MODEL ; RISK ; URBANIZATION ; DYNAMICS ; DISEASE ; VECTOR ; EPIDEMICS
WOS类目Biology ; Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS研究方向Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
来源机构University of London
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/189949
作者单位1.Univ Denver, Dept Geog & Environm, Denver, CO 80208 USA;
2.Univ Denver, Frederick S Pardee Ctr Int Futures, Josef Korbel Sch Int Studies, Denver, CO 80208 USA;
3.Univ London, London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1 E7HT, England;
4.Univ Barcelona, Catalan Inst Climate Sci IC3, Barcelona 08005, Spain;
5.Univ Chicago, Dept Ecol & Evolut, Chicago, IL 60637 USA;
6.PATH Malaria Control & Eliminat Partnership Afric, Addis Ababa 1110, Ethiopia;
7.Oromia Reg Hlth Bur, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;
8.Univ S Australia, Sch Nat & Built Environm, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, Australia;
9.Howard Hughes Med Inst, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Siraj, Amir S.,Bouma, Menno J.,Santos-Vega, Mauricio,et al. Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria[J]. University of London,2015,282(1820).
APA Siraj, Amir S..,Bouma, Menno J..,Santos-Vega, Mauricio.,Yeshiwondim, Asnakew K..,Rothman, Dale S..,...&Pascual, Mercedes.(2015).Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria.PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,282(1820).
MLA Siraj, Amir S.,et al."Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria".PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES 282.1820(2015).
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