Arid
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0118114
Improved Climate Risk Simulations for Rice in Arid Environments
van Oort, Pepijn A. J.1,2; de Vries, Michiel E.3; Yoshida, Hiroe4; Saito, Kazuki1
通讯作者de Vries, Michiel E.
来源期刊PLOS ONE
ISSN1932-6203
出版年2015
卷号10期号:3
英文摘要

We integrated recent research on cardinal temperatures for phenology and early leaf growth, spikelet formation, early morning flowering, transpirational cooling, and heat- and cold-induced sterility into an existing to crop growth model ORYZA2000. We compared for an arid environment observed potential yields with yields simulated with default ORYZA2000, with modified subversions of ORYZA2000 and with ORYZA_S, a model developed for the region of interest in the 1990s. Rice variety ’IR64’ was sown monthly 15-times in a row in two locations in Senegal. The Senegal River Valley is located in the Sahel, near the Sahara desert with extreme temperatures during day and night. The existing subroutines underestimated cold stress and overestimated heat stress. Forcing the model to use observed spikelet number and phenology and replacing the existing heat and cold subroutines improved accuracy of yield simulation from EF = -0.32 to EF = 0.70 (EF is modelling efficiency). The main causes of improved accuracy were that the new model subversions take into account transpirational cooling (which is high in arid environments) and early morning flowering for heat sterility, and minimum rather than average temperature for cold sterility. Simulations were less accurate when also spikelet number and phenology were simulated. Model efficiency was 0.14 with new heat and cold routines and improved to 0.48 when using new cardinal temperatures for phenology and early leaf growth. The new adapted subversion of ORYZA2000 offers a powerful analytic tool for climate change impact assessment and cropping calendar optimisation in arid regions.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Benin ; Netherlands ; Japan
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000351183500024
WOS关键词TEMPERATURE-INDUCED STERILITY ; INDUCED SPIKELET STERILITY ; IRRIGATED RICE ; EXPLORING OPTIONS ; MODELING APPROACH ; SOLAR-RADIATION ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; LOWLAND RICE ; HEAT-STRESS ; LESS WATER
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/189730
作者单位1.Africa Rice Ctr AfricaRice, Cotonou, Benin;
2.Wageningen Univ, Ctr Crop Syst Anal, Crop & Weed Ecol Grp, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands;
3.J Joordens Zaadhandel BV, NL-5995 ZG Kessel, Netherlands;
4.Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058666, Japan
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
van Oort, Pepijn A. J.,de Vries, Michiel E.,Yoshida, Hiroe,et al. Improved Climate Risk Simulations for Rice in Arid Environments[J],2015,10(3).
APA van Oort, Pepijn A. J.,de Vries, Michiel E.,Yoshida, Hiroe,&Saito, Kazuki.(2015).Improved Climate Risk Simulations for Rice in Arid Environments.PLOS ONE,10(3).
MLA van Oort, Pepijn A. J.,et al."Improved Climate Risk Simulations for Rice in Arid Environments".PLOS ONE 10.3(2015).
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