Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s00442-015-3234-5 |
Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity | |
Golodets, Carly1; Sternberg, Marcelo1; Kigel, Jaime2; Boeken, Bertrand3; Henkin, Zalmen4; Seligman, No’am G.5; Ungar, Eugene D.6 | |
通讯作者 | Golodets, Carly |
来源期刊 | OECOLOGIA
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ISSN | 0029-8549 |
EISSN | 1432-1939 |
出版年 | 2015 |
卷号 | 177期号:4页码:971-979 |
英文摘要 | Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20 % and increase its standard deviation by 20 % in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert-Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP-precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands. |
英文关键词 | ANPP Coefficient of variation Mean annual precipitation Precipitation variability Rangelands |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000351470100006 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; PATTERNS ; GRASSLAND ; ISRAEL ; COMMUNITIES ; ECOSYSTEMS ; LEGACIES ; DESERT ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Ecology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
来源机构 | Ben-Gurion University of the Negev ; Hebrew University of Jerusalem |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/189403 |
作者单位 | 1.Tel Aviv Univ, Fac Life Sci, Dept Mol Biol & Ecol Plants, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel; 2.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Inst Plant Sci & Genet, Robert H Smith Fac Agr Food & Environm, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel; 3.Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, IL-84990 Sede Boqer, Israel; 4.Agr Res Org, Newe Yaar Res Ctr, IL-30095 Ramat Yishai, Israel; 5.Galilee Technol Ctr, Northern Res & Dev, IL-11016 Kiryat Shemona, Israel; 6.Agr Res Org, Volcani Ctr, Inst Plant Sci, Dept Agron & Nat Resources, IL-50250 Bet Dagan, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Golodets, Carly,Sternberg, Marcelo,Kigel, Jaime,et al. Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity[J]. Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Hebrew University of Jerusalem,2015,177(4):971-979. |
APA | Golodets, Carly.,Sternberg, Marcelo.,Kigel, Jaime.,Boeken, Bertrand.,Henkin, Zalmen.,...&Ungar, Eugene D..(2015).Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity.OECOLOGIA,177(4),971-979. |
MLA | Golodets, Carly,et al."Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity".OECOLOGIA 177.4(2015):971-979. |
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