Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s11069-015-1812-9 |
Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region | |
Mirzaei, Majid1; Huang, Yuk Feng1; El-Shafie, Ahmed2; Chimeh, Tayebeh3; Lee, Juneseok3; Vaizadeh, Nariman2; Adamowski, Jan4 | |
通讯作者 | Mirzaei, Majid |
来源期刊 | NATURAL HAZARDS
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ISSN | 0921-030X |
EISSN | 1573-0840 |
出版年 | 2015 |
卷号 | 78期号:3页码:1947-1960 |
英文摘要 | Extreme flood events are complex and inherently uncertain phenomenons. Consequently forecasts of floods are inherently uncertain in nature due to various sources of uncertainty including model uncertainty, input uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. This paper investigates two types of natural and model uncertainties in extreme rainfall-runoff events in a semi-arid region. Natural uncertainty is incorporated in the distribution function of the series of annual maximum daily rainfall, and model uncertainty is an epistemic uncertainty source. The kinematic runoff and erosion model was used for rainfall-runoff simulation. The model calibration scheme is carried out under the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation framework to quantify uncertainty in the rainfall-runoff modeling process. Uncertainties of the rainfall depths-associated with depth duration frequency curves-were estimated with the bootstrap sampling method and described by a normal probability density function. These uncertainties are presented in the rainfall-runoff modeling for investigation of uncertainty effects on extreme hydrological events discharge and can be embedded into guidelines for risk-based design and management of urban water infrastructure. |
英文关键词 | Flood Uncertainty GLUE Bootstrap sampling GEV |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Malaysia ; USA ; Canada |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000358410300025 |
WOS关键词 | PARAMETER-ESTIMATION ; GLUE METHODOLOGY ; CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS ; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS ; CALIBRATION ; INCOHERENCE ; RIVER ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION ; RUNOFF |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/189318 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Tuanku Abdul Rahman, Fac Engn & Sci, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 2.Univ Kebangsaan Malaysia, Fac Engn & Built Environm, Bangi 43600, Malaysia; 3.San Jose State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, San Jose, CA 95192 USA; 4.McGill Univ, Fac Agr & Environm Sci, Dept Bioresource Engn, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ H9X 3V9, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mirzaei, Majid,Huang, Yuk Feng,El-Shafie, Ahmed,et al. Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region[J],2015,78(3):1947-1960. |
APA | Mirzaei, Majid.,Huang, Yuk Feng.,El-Shafie, Ahmed.,Chimeh, Tayebeh.,Lee, Juneseok.,...&Adamowski, Jan.(2015).Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region.NATURAL HAZARDS,78(3),1947-1960. |
MLA | Mirzaei, Majid,et al."Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region".NATURAL HAZARDS 78.3(2015):1947-1960. |
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Uncertainty analysis(1803KB) | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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