Arid
DOI10.1007/s11069-015-1748-0
Assessing the accuracy of multiple regressions, ANFIS, and ANN models in predicting dust storm occurrences in Sanandaj, Iran
Kaboodvandpour, Shahram1; Amanollahi, Jamil1; Qhavami, Samira1; Mohammadi, Bakhtiyar2
通讯作者Kaboodvandpour, Shahram
来源期刊NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN0921-030X
EISSN1573-0840
出版年2015
卷号78期号:2页码:879-893
英文摘要

Dust storms in the Sanandaj area in the western region of Iran, mainly during spring and summer, have become an environmental crisis. Prediction of dust storm occurrences helps the residents to their detrimental effects. However, no study has been conducted to determine the accuracy of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model in predicting dust storm occurrences. For that purpose, the prediction accuracy of ANFIS model was compared with that of two conventional models used for dust storm prediction: the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Multiple Regression (MLR) models. Daily mean meteorological variables from Damascus (Syria) and PM10 concentration, measured at a ground station in Sanandaj, Iran, from 2009 to 2012, were selected as independent and dependent variables, respectively. After data normalization between zero and one, the data from 2009 to 2011 were used for the simulation, while the data of 2012 were utilized for testing the models. The performance of the ANFIS model in simulating dust storm occurrences was higher compared with those of MLR and ANN. In the simulation results, among the three models, the highest Pearson correlation coefficient between the observed and the estimated dust storm occurrences was obtained for the ANFIS model. The prediction tests showed that the accuracy of the ANFIS model was higher compared with ANN and MLR. From the results of this study, it can be concluded that the ANFIS model has the potential to forecast dust storm occurrences in western Iran by using meteorological variables of the dust storm creation zone in the Syrian deserts.


英文关键词Simulate Test Meteorological variables PM10 Ground station Desert
类型Article
语种英语
国家Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000358328000006
WOS关键词ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; DRY DEPOSITION FLUXES ; AIR-POLLUTION ; TIME-SERIES ; SYSTEM ; ATMOSPHERE ; CORROSION ; AEROSOLS ; CLIMATE ; SURFACE
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/189317
作者单位1.Univ Kurdistan, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Environm Sci, Sanandaj 6617715175, Iran;
2.Univ Kurdistan, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Climatol, Sanandaj 6617715175, Iran
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GB/T 7714
Kaboodvandpour, Shahram,Amanollahi, Jamil,Qhavami, Samira,et al. Assessing the accuracy of multiple regressions, ANFIS, and ANN models in predicting dust storm occurrences in Sanandaj, Iran[J],2015,78(2):879-893.
APA Kaboodvandpour, Shahram,Amanollahi, Jamil,Qhavami, Samira,&Mohammadi, Bakhtiyar.(2015).Assessing the accuracy of multiple regressions, ANFIS, and ANN models in predicting dust storm occurrences in Sanandaj, Iran.NATURAL HAZARDS,78(2),879-893.
MLA Kaboodvandpour, Shahram,et al."Assessing the accuracy of multiple regressions, ANFIS, and ANN models in predicting dust storm occurrences in Sanandaj, Iran".NATURAL HAZARDS 78.2(2015):879-893.
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