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Crop response to changing climate can be examined considering variability in thermal and moisture regimes using real time crop data. An analytical approach has been attempted to find the variations in productivity of groundnut grown under arid climate of Anantapur region in Peninsular India. Results revealed that increase in temperature has profound influence on productivity during deficit rainfall years. During the seasons with the seasonal rainfall less than 319 mm, increase in seasonal maximum temperature by 1 degrees C resulted in decline of average productivity by 150 kg/ha. However, during the seasons with good rainfall of 477 mm, increase in maximum temperature by 1 degrees C has resulted in decline of average productivity by 500 kg/ha. During dry seasons, an increase in minimum temperature by 1 and 2 degrees C resulted in decreased average productivity by 400 and 800 kg/ha, respectively. It can be concluded that the groundnut productivity appeared to be more influenced by thermal regime compared to moisture regime. The analytical approach proposed in the present investigation can be extended to various crops and agro-climatic zones to understand the climate change effects on crop productivity in dryland ecosystems in particular.