Arid
DOI10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000474
Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change and Population Growth on Within-Year Reservoir Systems
Singh, Harminder1,2; Sinha, Tushar2; Sankarasubramanian, A.2
通讯作者Sinha, Tushar
来源期刊JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN0733-9496
EISSN1943-5452
出版年2015
卷号141期号:6
英文摘要

Climate change and increased urban demand can significantly stress water supply systems, emphasizing the importance of reallocating reservoir storage for the designed uses. Most studies on climate change assessment have analyzed arid region reservoirs due to high interannual variability in streamflows. This study focuses on a within-year reservoir system, Lake Jordan in North Carolina, from a temperate region that has been experiencing rapid growth since the 1990s. Given the interest in utilizing climate change projections for planning purposes, the current operational policies are evaluated, and revised rules for operating the within-year system over 30year period (2012-2041) are suggested. Downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections are used to implement the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model for the Upper Cape Fear River basin to estimate changes in mean monthly streamflows during 2012-2041 at Lake Jordan. Projected monthly streamflows from four GCMs indicate wet winter conditions and increased interannual variability. The authors forced the reservoir model with multiple streamflow realizations that preserve the projected changes in monthly streamflow using a stochastic scheme. The within-year reservoir system performance was evaluated under stationary climate, climate change under existing and projected water demands, and by investigating interventions to ensure the design reliability under increased demands. These results indicate that the changes in the reliability due to increased urban demands are small because initial reservoir storage ensure the demand for multiple seasons. However, increases in the urban demand and streamflow variability tend to decrease the reservoir resiliency, forcing the within-year reservoir to behave like an over-year system. This could result in increased period of proactive measures such as restrictions and necessitates periodical reevaluation of drought management plans for better managing existing systems.


英文关键词Climate change Hydroclimate Reservoir analyses Water supply Flood control
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000354556600001
WOS关键词WATER-RESOURCES ; HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE ; MODEL ; STREAMFLOW ; PREDICTION ; DROUGHT ; SIMULATION ; MANAGEMENT ; FORECASTS ; COLORADO
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/189051
作者单位1.Wetherill Engn Inc, Raleigh, NC 27606 USA;
2.N Carolina State Univ, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Singh, Harminder,Sinha, Tushar,Sankarasubramanian, A.. Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change and Population Growth on Within-Year Reservoir Systems[J],2015,141(6).
APA Singh, Harminder,Sinha, Tushar,&Sankarasubramanian, A..(2015).Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change and Population Growth on Within-Year Reservoir Systems.JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT,141(6).
MLA Singh, Harminder,et al."Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change and Population Growth on Within-Year Reservoir Systems".JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT 141.6(2015).
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