Arid
DOI10.1175/JHM-D-14-0231.1
Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan
Zhao, Qiudong1,2; Zhang, Shiqiang3; Ding, Yong Jian1; Wang, Jian2; Han, Haidong2; Xu, Junli1; Zhao, Chuancheng2; Guo, Wanqin1; Shangguan, Donghui1
通讯作者Ding, Yong Jian
来源期刊JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
ISSN1525-755X
EISSN1525-7541
出版年2015
卷号16期号:6页码:2383-2402
英文摘要

Arid and semiarid lowland areas of central Asia are largely dependent on fluvial water originating from the Tian Shan. Mountain glaciers contribute significantly to runoff, particularly in summer. With global warming, the total glacier area in the Kunma Like River catchment declined by 13.2% during 1990-2007. For future water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, such as the headwaters of the Tarim River. Thus, a degree-day glacier melt algorithm was integrated into the macroscale hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Good results were obtained for monthly runoff simulations in the Kunma Like River catchment, which suggest that the extended VIC has acceptable performance. Because of increased precipitation and air temperature, annual runoff in the catchment has increased by about 4.07 x 10(8) m(3) decade(-1) during 1984/85-2006/07. Under the assumption of the same climatic conditions, sensitivity analyses indicated that annual and summer river runoff volumes would decrease by 9.3% and 10.4%, respectively, for reductions in glacier area of 13.2%. The variation coefficient of annual runoff also increased because of shrinking glaciers. Runoff scenarios for warmer future climate and various deglaciation situations suggest that reductions in glacier area by >30% will likely produce less meltwater in summer and river runoff will decline. Consequently, the annual total discharge of the Kunma Like River is projected to decrease by 2.8%-19.4% in the 2050s scenario because of glacier shrinking.


英文关键词Models and modeling Hydrologic models
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000364975700001
WOS关键词DISTRIBUTED SURFACE-ENERGY ; REGIONAL-SCALE HYDROLOGY ; NORTHERN TIEN-SHAN ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; MASS-BALANCE ; MOUNTAIN GLACIER ; NORTHWEST CHINA ; RUNOFF CHANGES ; VIC-2L MODEL ; TEMPERATURE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/188819
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Div Hydrol & Water Land Resource Cold & Arid Reg, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;
3.NW Univ Xian, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Xian 710069, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Qiudong,Zhang, Shiqiang,Ding, Yong Jian,et al. Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2015,16(6):2383-2402.
APA Zhao, Qiudong.,Zhang, Shiqiang.,Ding, Yong Jian.,Wang, Jian.,Han, Haidong.,...&Shangguan, Donghui.(2015).Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,16(6),2383-2402.
MLA Zhao, Qiudong,et al."Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 16.6(2015):2383-2402.
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