Arid
DOI10.1111/jbi.12534
Spatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan
Wilschut, Liesbeth I.1,2; Laudisoit, Anne3; Hughes, Nelika K.4; Addink, Elisabeth A.1; de Jong, Steven M.1; Heesterbeek, Hans A. P.2; Reijniers, Jonas4; Eagle, Sally3; Dubyanskiy, Vladimir M.5; Begon, Mike3
通讯作者Wilschut, Liesbeth I.
来源期刊JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY
ISSN0305-0270
EISSN1365-2699
出版年2015
卷号42期号:7页码:1281-1292
英文摘要

AimThe spatial structure of a population can strongly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases, yet rarely is the underlying structure quantified. A case in point is plague, an infectious zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Plague dynamics within the Central Asian desert plague focus have been extensively modelled in recent years, but always with strong uniformity assumptions about the distribution of its primary reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). Yet, while clustering of this species’ burrows due to social or ecological processes could have potentially significant effects on model outcomes, there is currently nothing known about the spatial distribution of inhabited burrows. Here, we address this knowledge gap by describing key aspects of the spatial patterns of great gerbil burrows in Kazakhstan.


LocationKazakhstan.


MethodsBurrows were classified as either occupied or empty in 98 squares of four different sizes: 200m (side length), 250m, 500m and 590-1020m. We used Ripley’s K statistic to determine whether and at what scale there was clustering of occupied burrows, and semi-variograms to quantify spatial patterns in occupied burrows at scales of 250m to 9km.


ResultsSignificant spatial clustering of occupied burrows occurred in 25% and 75% of squares of 500m and 590-1020m, respectively, but not in smaller squares. In clustered squares, the clustering criterion peaked around 250m. Semi-variograms showed that burrow density was auto-correlated up to a distance of 7km and occupied density up to 2.5km.


Main conclusionsThese results demonstrate that there is statistically significant spatial clustering of occupied burrows and that the uniformity assumptions of previous plague models should be reconsidered to assess its significance for plague transmission. This field evidence will allow for more realistic approaches to disease ecology models for both this system and for other structured host populations.


英文关键词Bubonic plague clustering desert GIS infectious disease landscape epidemiology Rhombomys opimus rodents spatial point pattern analysis Yersinia pestis
类型Article
语种英语
国家Netherlands ; England ; Belgium ; Russia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000356674300009
WOS关键词RHOMBOMYS-OPIMUS ; METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS ; DESERT RODENT ; PERSISTENCE ; GEOSTATISTICS ; THRESHOLDS ; PREDATION ; MODELS ; SPREAD
WOS类目Ecology ; Geography, Physical
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/188442
作者单位1.Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands;
2.Univ Utrecht, Fac Vet Med, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands;
3.Univ Liverpool, Inst Integrat Biol, Ecol Evolut & Genom Infect Dis Res Grp, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England;
4.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Evolutionary Ecol Grp, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium;
5.Stavropol Plague Control Res Inst, Stavropol, Russia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Wilschut, Liesbeth I.,Laudisoit, Anne,Hughes, Nelika K.,et al. Spatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan[J],2015,42(7):1281-1292.
APA Wilschut, Liesbeth I..,Laudisoit, Anne.,Hughes, Nelika K..,Addink, Elisabeth A..,de Jong, Steven M..,...&Begon, Mike.(2015).Spatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan.JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY,42(7),1281-1292.
MLA Wilschut, Liesbeth I.,et al."Spatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan".JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY 42.7(2015):1281-1292.
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