干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

This study modeled the urban growth in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR), one of the fastest growing mega cities in the world, using remote sensing data and ancillary data. Three land use land cover (LULC) maps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were produced from satellite images by using Support Vector Machines (SVM). Then, land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique that combines binary maps (change/no-change) and post classification comparison technique. The spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using selected statistical metrics developed in the FRAGSTATS software. Major transitions to urban were modeled to predict the future scenarios for year 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in the IDRISI software. The model results, after validation, indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will be urbanized in 2025. The urban areas within a 5-km buffer around: the Great Pyramids, Islamic Cairo and Al-Baron Palace were calculated, highlighting an intense urbanization especially around the Pyramids; 28% in 2014 up to 40% in 2025. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers to adjust and develop new plans to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas and to protect the historical locations.