Arid
DOI10.2166/nh.2015.143
Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production and land degradation in a semi-arid river basin
Emam, Ammar Rafiei1,2; Kappas, Martin2; Hosseini, Seyed Zeynalabedin2
通讯作者Emam, Ammar Rafiei
来源期刊HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
ISSN0029-1277
EISSN2224-7955
出版年2015
卷号46期号:6页码:854-870
英文摘要

The semi-arid regions of Iran have experienced severe water resources stress due to natural (e.g., drought) and anthropogenic (e.g., depletion of water in various sectors) factors. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources and crop production could significantly help toward better water management and hence prevention of land degradation in this area. A hydrological model of the Razan-Ghahavand basin was used as a representative case study of a semi-arid region of Iran. Future climate scenarios in the mid-21st century were generated from four global circulation models (GCMs) with three scenarios under the fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission projections. The GCMs have been downscaled based on observed data at 10 climate stations across the basin. The results showed that for the basin as a whole, the mean annual precipitation is likely to decrease while the maximum temperature increases. The changes in these two climate variables resulted in substantial reduction in groundwater recharge as the main source of water supply in this area. Furthermore, soil water content was decreased which resulted in the reduction of crop yield in rain-fed areas. Indeed, the risk of drought in the south and flooding in the north was high.


英文关键词climate change food security semi-arid area water resources
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany ; Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000368317600002
WOS关键词FORMAL BAYESIAN METHOD ; UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT ; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE ; POTENTIAL IMPACTS ; SWAT MODEL ; GROUNDWATER ; CYCLE ; GLUE ; PRECIPITATION ; EVAPORATION
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/187771
作者单位1.Univ Gottingen, Dept Cartog GIS & Remote Sensing, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany;
2.Univ Yazd, Dept Nat Resources & Desert Studies, Yazd, Iran
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Emam, Ammar Rafiei,Kappas, Martin,Hosseini, Seyed Zeynalabedin. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production and land degradation in a semi-arid river basin[J],2015,46(6):854-870.
APA Emam, Ammar Rafiei,Kappas, Martin,&Hosseini, Seyed Zeynalabedin.(2015).Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production and land degradation in a semi-arid river basin.HYDROLOGY RESEARCH,46(6),854-870.
MLA Emam, Ammar Rafiei,et al."Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production and land degradation in a semi-arid river basin".HYDROLOGY RESEARCH 46.6(2015):854-870.
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