Arid
DOI10.1080/02626667.2015.1040021
Analysis of rainfall and large-scale predictors using a stochastic model and artificial neural network for hydrological applications in southern Africa
Kenabatho, P. K.1; Parida, B. P.2; Moalafhi, D. B.1,3; Segosebe, T.1
通讯作者Kenabatho, P. K.
来源期刊HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
ISSN0262-6667
EISSN2150-3435
出版年2015
卷号60期号:11页码:1943-1955
英文摘要

Rainfall is a major requirement for many water resources applications, including food production and security. Understanding the main drivers of rainfall and its variability in semi-arid areas is a key to unlocking the complex rainfall processes influencing the translation of rainfall into runoff. In recent studies, temperature and humidity were found to be among rainfall predictors in Botswana and South African catchments when using complex rainfall models based on the generalized linear models (GLMs). In this study, we explore the use of other less complex models such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), and Multiplicative Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MARIMA) (a) to further investigate the association between rainfall and large-scale rainfall predictors in Botswana, and (b) to forecast these predictors to simulate rainfall at shorter future time scales (October-December) for policy applications. The results indicate that ANN yields better estimates of forecasted temperatures and rainfall than MARIMA.


英文关键词artificial neural networks generalized linear models rainfall southern Africa stochastic models teleconnections
类型Article
语种英语
国家Botswana ; Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000366326800006
WOS关键词GENERALIZED LINEAR-MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACT
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/187741
作者单位1.Univ Botswana, Dept Environm Sci, Gaborone, Botswana;
2.Univ Botswana, Dept Civil Engn, Gaborone, Botswana;
3.Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Kenabatho, P. K.,Parida, B. P.,Moalafhi, D. B.,et al. Analysis of rainfall and large-scale predictors using a stochastic model and artificial neural network for hydrological applications in southern Africa[J],2015,60(11):1943-1955.
APA Kenabatho, P. K.,Parida, B. P.,Moalafhi, D. B.,&Segosebe, T..(2015).Analysis of rainfall and large-scale predictors using a stochastic model and artificial neural network for hydrological applications in southern Africa.HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,60(11),1943-1955.
MLA Kenabatho, P. K.,et al."Analysis of rainfall and large-scale predictors using a stochastic model and artificial neural network for hydrological applications in southern Africa".HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES 60.11(2015):1943-1955.
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