Arid
DOI10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.12.005
On predicting debris flows in arid mountain belts
Stolle, Amelie; Langer, Maria; Bloethe, Jan Henrik; Korup, Oliver
通讯作者Stolle, Amelie
来源期刊GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
ISSN0921-8181
EISSN1872-6364
出版年2015
卷号126页码:1-13
英文摘要

The use of topographic metrics for estimating the susceptibility to, and reconstructing the characteristics of, debris flows has a long research tradition, although largely devoted to humid mountainous terrain. The exceptional 2010 monsoonal rainstorms in the high-altitude mountain desert of Ladakh and Zanskar, NW India, were a painful reminder of how susceptible arid regions are to rainfall-triggered flash floods, landslides, and debris flows. The rainstorms of August 4-6 triggered numerous debris flows, killing 182 people, devastating 607 houses, and more than 10 bridges around Ladakh’s capital of Leh. The lessons from this disaster motivated us to revisit methods of predicting (a) flow parameters such as peak discharge and maximum velocity from field and remote sensing data, and (b) the susceptibility to debris flows from catchment morphometry. We focus on quantifying uncertainties tied to these approaches. Comparison of high-resolution satellite images pre- and post-dating the 2010 rainstorm reveals the extent of damage and catastrophic channel widening. Computations based on these geomorphic markers indicate maximum flow velocities of 1.6-6.7 m s(-1) with runout of up to similar to 10 km on several alluvial fans that sustain most of the region’s settlements. We estimate median peak discharges of 310-610 m(3) s(-1), which are largely consistent with previous estimates. Monte Carlo-based error propagation for a single given flow-reconstruction method returns a variance in discharge similar to one derived from juxtaposing several different flow reconstruction methods. We further compare discriminant analysis, classification tree modelling, and Bayesian logistic regression to predict debris-flow susceptibility from morphometric variables of 171 catchments in the Ladakh Range. These methods distinguish between fluvial and debris flow-prone catchments at similar success rates, but Bayesian logistic regression allows quantifying uncertainties and relationships between potential predictors. We conclude that, in order to be robust and reliable, morphometric reconstruction of debris-flow properties and susceptibility requires careful assessment and reporting of errors and uncertainties. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词debris flow peak discharge channel geometry geomorphometry Bayesian logistic regression Transhimalaya
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000350181300001
WOS关键词SUSCEPTIBILITY ; FLOODS ; FANS ; ALPS
WOS类目Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Physical Geography ; Geology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/187571
作者单位Univ Potsdam, Inst Earth & Environm Sci, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Stolle, Amelie,Langer, Maria,Bloethe, Jan Henrik,et al. On predicting debris flows in arid mountain belts[J],2015,126:1-13.
APA Stolle, Amelie,Langer, Maria,Bloethe, Jan Henrik,&Korup, Oliver.(2015).On predicting debris flows in arid mountain belts.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,126,1-13.
MLA Stolle, Amelie,et al."On predicting debris flows in arid mountain belts".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 126(2015):1-13.
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