Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s12665-015-4618-x |
Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario | |
Gang, Chengcheng1,2,3,4; Wang, Zhaoqi4; Zhou, Wei5; Chen, Yizhao4; Li, Jianlong4; Cheng, Jimin1,2,3; Guo, Liang1,2,3; Odeh, Inakwu6; Chen, Chun5 | |
通讯作者 | Li, Jianlong |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES |
ISSN | 1866-6280 |
EISSN | 1866-6299 |
出版年 | 2015 |
卷号 | 74期号:7页码:5949-5959 |
英文摘要 | This paper aims to reveal the responses of global natural vegetation to future climate change in the twenty-first century. Thus, the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in three time slices, namely, 2030s, 2050s and 2070s are projected using a segmentation model that utilized 25 global climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) scenario. The results showed that forests would expand at the expense of grasslands and deserts in the current century. Terrestrial NPP is projected to increase globally from 127.04 +/- 1.74 Pg DW.a(-1) in 2030s to 127.62 +/- 2.57 Pg DW.a(-1) in 2070s. Temperate forest, the largest distributed vegetation, would contribute the most to the overall increase (548.50 Tg DW.a(-1)). The NPP of warm desert, savanna, and tropical forest is projected to increase by 31.03, 248.45 and 111.25 Tg DW.a(-1), respectively. By contrast, the NPP of all the other vegetations would decline at the end of this century. In the tropical and the south temperate zones, terrestrial NPP is projected to decrease by 99.32 and 25.56 Tg DW.a(-1), respectively, with the difference lying in the increasing-decreasing trend in the former and the continually decreasing trend in the latter. However, terrestrial NPP in the north temperate and north frigid zones is projected to increase consistently by 639.43 and 57.73 Tg DW.a(-1), respectively. The "increase-peak-decline’’ trend of greenhouses gases described in the RCP2.6 would lead to the warming and cooling periods during this century. The vegetation NPP of various ecosystems or climate zones would respond differently to the future climate change. In general, ecosystems in northern high latitudes would become more vulnerable to future climate change compared to other vegetations. |
英文关键词 | Comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) Representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6) Multi-model ensemble mean (MME) Potential natural vegetation (PNV) Net primary productivity (NPP) |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China ; Australia |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000362016100040 |
WOS关键词 | CLASSIFICATION-SYSTEM ; ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE ; SOIL CARBON ; IMPACTS ; SATELLITE ; MODEL ; NPP |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Water Resources |
来源机构 | 西北农林科技大学 ; 南京大学 |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/187059 |
作者单位 | 1.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China; 3.Minist Water Resources, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China; 4.Nanjing Univ, Global Change Res Inst, Sch Life Sci, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 5.Chongqing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Architecture & Urban Planning, Chongqing 400074, Peoples R China; 6.Univ Sydney, Fac Agr & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gang, Chengcheng,Wang, Zhaoqi,Zhou, Wei,et al. Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario[J]. 西北农林科技大学, 南京大学,2015,74(7):5949-5959. |
APA | Gang, Chengcheng.,Wang, Zhaoqi.,Zhou, Wei.,Chen, Yizhao.,Li, Jianlong.,...&Chen, Chun.(2015).Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario.ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,74(7),5949-5959. |
MLA | Gang, Chengcheng,et al."Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario".ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 74.7(2015):5949-5959. |
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