Arid
DOI10.1007/s12665-015-4618-x
Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario
Gang, Chengcheng1,2,3,4; Wang, Zhaoqi4; Zhou, Wei5; Chen, Yizhao4; Li, Jianlong4; Cheng, Jimin1,2,3; Guo, Liang1,2,3; Odeh, Inakwu6; Chen, Chun5
通讯作者Li, Jianlong
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN1866-6280
EISSN1866-6299
出版年2015
卷号74期号:7页码:5949-5959
英文摘要

This paper aims to reveal the responses of global natural vegetation to future climate change in the twenty-first century. Thus, the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in three time slices, namely, 2030s, 2050s and 2070s are projected using a segmentation model that utilized 25 global climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) scenario. The results showed that forests would expand at the expense of grasslands and deserts in the current century. Terrestrial NPP is projected to increase globally from 127.04 +/- 1.74 Pg DW.a(-1) in 2030s to 127.62 +/- 2.57 Pg DW.a(-1) in 2070s. Temperate forest, the largest distributed vegetation, would contribute the most to the overall increase (548.50 Tg DW.a(-1)). The NPP of warm desert, savanna, and tropical forest is projected to increase by 31.03, 248.45 and 111.25 Tg DW.a(-1), respectively. By contrast, the NPP of all the other vegetations would decline at the end of this century. In the tropical and the south temperate zones, terrestrial NPP is projected to decrease by 99.32 and 25.56 Tg DW.a(-1), respectively, with the difference lying in the increasing-decreasing trend in the former and the continually decreasing trend in the latter. However, terrestrial NPP in the north temperate and north frigid zones is projected to increase consistently by 639.43 and 57.73 Tg DW.a(-1), respectively. The "increase-peak-decline’’ trend of greenhouses gases described in the RCP2.6 would lead to the warming and cooling periods during this century. The vegetation NPP of various ecosystems or climate zones would respond differently to the future climate change. In general, ecosystems in northern high latitudes would become more vulnerable to future climate change compared to other vegetations.


英文关键词Comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) Representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6) Multi-model ensemble mean (MME) Potential natural vegetation (PNV) Net primary productivity (NPP)
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China ; Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000362016100040
WOS关键词CLASSIFICATION-SYSTEM ; ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE ; SOIL CARBON ; IMPACTS ; SATELLITE ; MODEL ; NPP
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Water Resources
来源机构西北农林科技大学 ; 南京大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/187059
作者单位1.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China;
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China;
3.Minist Water Resources, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China;
4.Nanjing Univ, Global Change Res Inst, Sch Life Sci, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
5.Chongqing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Architecture & Urban Planning, Chongqing 400074, Peoples R China;
6.Univ Sydney, Fac Agr & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gang, Chengcheng,Wang, Zhaoqi,Zhou, Wei,et al. Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario[J]. 西北农林科技大学, 南京大学,2015,74(7):5949-5959.
APA Gang, Chengcheng.,Wang, Zhaoqi.,Zhou, Wei.,Chen, Yizhao.,Li, Jianlong.,...&Chen, Chun.(2015).Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario.ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,74(7),5949-5959.
MLA Gang, Chengcheng,et al."Projecting the dynamics of terrestrial net primary productivity in response to future climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario".ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 74.7(2015):5949-5959.
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