Arid
DOI10.1007/s10651-015-0327-6
Bayesian estimation of crop yield function: drought based wheat prediction model for tigem farms
Yildirak, Kasirga1; Kalaylioglu, Zeynep2; Mermer, Ali3
通讯作者Yildirak, Kasirga
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS
ISSN1352-8505
EISSN1573-3009
出版年2015
卷号22期号:4页码:693-704
英文摘要

Drought is one of the biggest threats that affects agriculture. Based on recent climatic observations and future projections, drought continues to increase its harmful impact on agricultural productivity especially in the arid areas of Turkey. Wheat farming in these arid and semi-arid areas such as Central Anatolia depends heavily on precipitation, thus monitoring for drought is needed. The timing of precipitation is also as important as its quantity. This study makes use of a crop and location specific model developed by FAO to simulate water related variables such as evapotranspiration, water deficiency and water satisfaction index to estimate the crop yield function for rain-fed wheat production in the arid regions of Turkey. A spatio-temporal yield model is estimated by Bayesian method known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. By standardizing the simulated variables over normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), impact of drought related variables on wheat yield is studied and two variables are found. Use of NDVI, as a numeraire, comes in handy in many ways. For actual evapotranspiration estimate, it strengthens separation between evaporation and transpiration and, for water deficiency, it better represents the drought properties of farms for the terrain chosen.


英文关键词Drought Markov Chain Monte Carlo Normalized difference vegetation index Prediction model Spatiotemporal model Water
类型Article
语种英语
国家Turkey
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000365258600006
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Statistics & Probability
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/186950
作者单位1.Hacettepe Univ, Dept Actuarial Sci, TR-06800 Ankara, Turkey;
2.Middle E Tech Univ, Dept Stat, TR-06530 Ankara, Turkey;
3.Turkish Minist Agr & Rural Affairs, Gen Directorate Agr Res, GIS Div, Ankara, Turkey
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GB/T 7714
Yildirak, Kasirga,Kalaylioglu, Zeynep,Mermer, Ali. Bayesian estimation of crop yield function: drought based wheat prediction model for tigem farms[J],2015,22(4):693-704.
APA Yildirak, Kasirga,Kalaylioglu, Zeynep,&Mermer, Ali.(2015).Bayesian estimation of crop yield function: drought based wheat prediction model for tigem farms.ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS,22(4),693-704.
MLA Yildirak, Kasirga,et al."Bayesian estimation of crop yield function: drought based wheat prediction model for tigem farms".ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS 22.4(2015):693-704.
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