Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s10651-015-0327-6 |
Bayesian estimation of crop yield function: drought based wheat prediction model for tigem farms | |
Yildirak, Kasirga1; Kalaylioglu, Zeynep2; Mermer, Ali3 | |
通讯作者 | Yildirak, Kasirga |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS
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ISSN | 1352-8505 |
EISSN | 1573-3009 |
出版年 | 2015 |
卷号 | 22期号:4页码:693-704 |
英文摘要 | Drought is one of the biggest threats that affects agriculture. Based on recent climatic observations and future projections, drought continues to increase its harmful impact on agricultural productivity especially in the arid areas of Turkey. Wheat farming in these arid and semi-arid areas such as Central Anatolia depends heavily on precipitation, thus monitoring for drought is needed. The timing of precipitation is also as important as its quantity. This study makes use of a crop and location specific model developed by FAO to simulate water related variables such as evapotranspiration, water deficiency and water satisfaction index to estimate the crop yield function for rain-fed wheat production in the arid regions of Turkey. A spatio-temporal yield model is estimated by Bayesian method known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. By standardizing the simulated variables over normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), impact of drought related variables on wheat yield is studied and two variables are found. Use of NDVI, as a numeraire, comes in handy in many ways. For actual evapotranspiration estimate, it strengthens separation between evaporation and transpiration and, for water deficiency, it better represents the drought properties of farms for the terrain chosen. |
英文关键词 | Drought Markov Chain Monte Carlo Normalized difference vegetation index Prediction model Spatiotemporal model Water |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Turkey |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000365258600006 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Statistics & Probability |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/186950 |
作者单位 | 1.Hacettepe Univ, Dept Actuarial Sci, TR-06800 Ankara, Turkey; 2.Middle E Tech Univ, Dept Stat, TR-06530 Ankara, Turkey; 3.Turkish Minist Agr & Rural Affairs, Gen Directorate Agr Res, GIS Div, Ankara, Turkey |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yildirak, Kasirga,Kalaylioglu, Zeynep,Mermer, Ali. Bayesian estimation of crop yield function: drought based wheat prediction model for tigem farms[J],2015,22(4):693-704. |
APA | Yildirak, Kasirga,Kalaylioglu, Zeynep,&Mermer, Ali.(2015).Bayesian estimation of crop yield function: drought based wheat prediction model for tigem farms.ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS,22(4),693-704. |
MLA | Yildirak, Kasirga,et al."Bayesian estimation of crop yield function: drought based wheat prediction model for tigem farms".ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS 22.4(2015):693-704. |
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文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
Bayesian estimation (379KB) | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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