Arid
DOI10.1016/j.envint.2015.02.007
Association of Kawasaki disease with tropospheric winds in Central Chile: Is wind-borne desert dust a risk factor?
Jorquera, Hector1,2; Borzutzky, Arturo3,4; Hoyos-Bachiloglu, Rodrigo3,4; Garcia, Alvaro3
通讯作者Jorquera, Hector
来源期刊ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL
ISSN0160-4120
EISSN1873-6750
出版年2015
卷号78页码:32-38
英文摘要

It has been found that Kawasaki disease (KD) cases diagnosed in Japan, Hawaii and San Diego, USA increase when tropospheric wind patterns arrive from central Asia, suggesting a common, wind-borne causal agent. We analyzed MD cases hospitalized in Santiago, Chile to look for associations with local, regional and large scale meteorological variables. We compiled monthly data of MD incidence rates, local meteorological variables, large scale wind patterns and several El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices for 2001-2010; we considered standardized anomalies in all analyses and used linear time series models to account for data autocorrelation. We found that meteorological variables explain 38% of variance in MD rates. A unit increase in northerly wind at 3 lagged months, temperature at 1 and 3 lagged months and monthly change of ENSO 4 index are associated with changes in MD rates of 0.203 (95% CI 0.049-0358), 0.181 (95% CI 0.014-0347), 0.192 (95% CI 0.030-0353) and 0307 (95% CI - 0.458-0.156), respectively. These results are robust when northerly wind level is changed or when a shorter period (2005-2010) is used to estimate model parameters. We found a statistical association of MD at Santiago, Chile with tropospheric, northerly wind patterns suggesting that dust transported from the Atacama Desert could include a causative agent. A novel result is that ENSO dynamics also explain part of MD variability with a decrease in MD when La Nina is dissipating or El Nino is on the rise; hence climate scale dynamics might be taken into account in future studies worldwide at least as a potential explanatory variable that may confound MD seasonality on a global scale. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Kawasaki disease Tropospheric winds El Nino Southern Oscillation Chile
类型Article
语种英语
国家Chile
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000353092400005
WOS关键词ASIAN DUST ; NORTH-AMERICA ; EL-NINO ; TRANSPORT ; OUTBREAKS ; AEROSOLS ; EVENT ; CHINA ; LIDAR
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/186948
作者单位1.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Ingn Quim & Bioproc, Santiago 7820436, Chile;
2.Ctr Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable CEDEUS, Santiago, Chile;
3.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Escuela Med, Div Pediat, Unidad Inmunol Alergia & Reumatol Pediat, Santiago 7820436, Chile;
4.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Escuela Med, Inst Milenio Inmunol & Inmunoterapia, Santiago 7820436, Chile
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Jorquera, Hector,Borzutzky, Arturo,Hoyos-Bachiloglu, Rodrigo,et al. Association of Kawasaki disease with tropospheric winds in Central Chile: Is wind-borne desert dust a risk factor?[J],2015,78:32-38.
APA Jorquera, Hector,Borzutzky, Arturo,Hoyos-Bachiloglu, Rodrigo,&Garcia, Alvaro.(2015).Association of Kawasaki disease with tropospheric winds in Central Chile: Is wind-borne desert dust a risk factor?.ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL,78,32-38.
MLA Jorquera, Hector,et al."Association of Kawasaki disease with tropospheric winds in Central Chile: Is wind-borne desert dust a risk factor?".ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 78(2015):32-38.
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