Arid
DOI10.1002/2014EF000290
Forecasting the response of Earth’s surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs
Pelletier, Jon D.1; Murray, A. Brad2; Pierce, Jennifer L.3; Bierman, Paul R.4; Breshears, David D.5; Crosby, Benjamin T.6; Ellis, Michael7; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi8; Heimsath, Arjun M.9; Houser, Chris10; Lancaster, Nick11; Marani, Marco2,12,13; Merritts, Dorothy J.14; Moore, Laura J.15; Pederson, Joel L.16; Poulos, Michael J.3; Rittenour, Tammy M.16; Rowland, Joel C.17; Ruggiero, Peter18; Ward, Dylan J.19; Wickert, Andrew D.20; Yager, Elowyn M.21
通讯作者Pelletier, Jon D.
来源期刊EARTHS FUTURE
EISSN2328-4277
出版年2015
卷号3期号:7页码:220-251
英文摘要

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth’s surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.


英文关键词global change Earth-surface processes forecasting
类型Review
语种英语
国家USA ; England ; Italy
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000359902200002
WOS关键词SEA-LEVEL RISE ; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM ; YELLOWSTONE-NATIONAL-PARK ; STRATH-TERRACE FORMATION ; FLUVIAL THERMAL EROSION ; LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS ; MORAINE-DAMMED LAKES ; GULF-OF-MEXICO ; LANDSCAPE EVOLUTION ; RIVER INCISION
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构University of Arizona ; Arizona State University ; Desert Research Institute
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/186720
作者单位1.Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA;
2.Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Div Earth & Ocean Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA;
3.Boise State Univ, Dept Geosci, Boise, ID 83725 USA;
4.Univ Vermont, Dept Geol, Burlington, VT USA;
5.Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA;
6.Idaho State Univ, Dept Geosci, Pocatello, ID 83209 USA;
7.British Geol Survey, Ctr Environm Sci, Nottingham NG12 5GG, England;
8.Univ Minnesota, St Anthony Falls Lab, Dept Civil Engn, Minneapolis, MN USA;
9.Arizona State Univ, Sch Earth & Space Explorat, Tempe, AZ USA;
10.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Geog, College Stn, TX USA;
11.Univ Nevada, Desert Res Inst, Reno, NV 89506 USA;
12.Duke Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Durham, NC 27706 USA;
13.Univ Padua, Dept Civil Architectural & Environm Engn, Padua, Italy;
14.Franklin & Marshall Coll, Dept Earth & Environm, Lancaster, PA 17604 USA;
15.Univ N Carolina, Dept Geol Sci, Chapel Hill, NC USA;
16.Utah State Univ, Dept Geol, Logan, UT 84322 USA;
17.Los Alamos Natl Lab, Div Earth & Environm Sci, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA;
18.Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA;
19.Univ Cincinnati, Dept Geol, Cincinnati, OH USA;
20.Univ Colorado, Dept Geol Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
21.Univ Idaho, Dept Civil Engn, Boise, ID USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Pelletier, Jon D.,Murray, A. Brad,Pierce, Jennifer L.,等. Forecasting the response of Earth’s surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs[J]. University of Arizona, Arizona State University, Desert Research Institute,2015,3(7):220-251.
APA Pelletier, Jon D..,Murray, A. Brad.,Pierce, Jennifer L..,Bierman, Paul R..,Breshears, David D..,...&Yager, Elowyn M..(2015).Forecasting the response of Earth’s surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs.EARTHS FUTURE,3(7),220-251.
MLA Pelletier, Jon D.,et al."Forecasting the response of Earth’s surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs".EARTHS FUTURE 3.7(2015):220-251.
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