Arid
DOI10.1007/s00382-014-2424-x
Projected changes in Malawi’s growing season
Vizy, Edward K.1; Cook, Kerry H.1; Chimphamba, James2; McCusker, Brent3
通讯作者Vizy, Edward K.
来源期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2015
卷号45期号:5-6页码:1673-1698
英文摘要

Regional climate model projections at 30-km resolution are used to predict future mid-century and late-century growing season changes over Malawi due to global warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 business-as-usual emissions forcing scenario. Three different methods for estimating growing season characteristics are applied and evaluated. All three methods yield reasonable growing season length, onset, and demise date estimates over Malawi given the wide range of uncertainty of the observations. The projections indicate the likelihood for a shorter growing season in the future over Malawi south of 13.5A degrees S. At mid-century the growing season length is predicted to be 20-40 % (20-55 days) shorter over the southernmost districts and 5-20 % (5-30 days) shorter over the central districts. By late-century the length is predicted to be 25-55 % (20-70 days) shorter with significant differences extending into northern Malawi. The shorter growing season is primarily associated with an earlier demise date, as no significant change in the onset date is predicted. Analysis of the regional circulation and horizontal moisture flux transport indicates that the earlier demise is associated with an intensification of the thermal low over the Kalahari Desert to the south and west of Malawi and an expansion of the mid-tropospheric Kalahari anticyclone over southern Africa. The stronger thermal low/anticyclone enhances the moisture flux divergence over Malawi suppressing the convective activity at the end of the wet season.


英文关键词Malawi Growing season Regional climate model Climate change impacts Kalahari anticyclone Thermal low African rainfall
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA ; Malawi
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000360507700030
WOS关键词SOUTHWEST INDIAN-OCEAN ; NORTHERN AFRICAN CLIMATE ; SOUTHERN-AFRICA ; 20-1ST CENTURY ; LAND-SURFACE ; PART I ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; MODELING SYSTEM ; RAINY-SEASON
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/186522
作者单位1.Univ Texas Austin, Jackson Sch Geosci, Dept Geol Sci, Austin, TX 78712 USA;
2.Univ Malawi, Dept Geog & Earth Sci, Chancellor Coll, Zomba, Malawi;
3.W Virginia Univ, Dept Geol & Geog, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Vizy, Edward K.,Cook, Kerry H.,Chimphamba, James,等. Projected changes in Malawi’s growing season[J],2015,45(5-6):1673-1698.
APA Vizy, Edward K.,Cook, Kerry H.,Chimphamba, James,&McCusker, Brent.(2015).Projected changes in Malawi’s growing season.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,45(5-6),1673-1698.
MLA Vizy, Edward K.,et al."Projected changes in Malawi’s growing season".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 45.5-6(2015):1673-1698.
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