Arid
DOI10.1007/s00382-015-2625-y
Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes
Cheng, Linyin1; Phillips, Thomas J.2; AghaKouchak, Amir1
通讯作者AghaKouchak, Amir
来源期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2015
卷号44期号:11-12页码:2947-2963
英文摘要

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are most subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.


英文关键词Temperature Climate CMIP5 Extremes Return level Non-stationary
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000354705700002
WOS关键词WATER-ELECTRICITY NEXUS ; GREENLAND ICE-SHEET ; CLIMATE EXTREMES ; CONTINENTAL PRECIPITATION ; DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION ; EVALUATING OPTIONS ; FREQUENCY ; TRENDS ; SIMULATIONS ; STATISTICS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/186517
作者单位1.Univ Calif Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697 USA;
2.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA
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Cheng, Linyin,Phillips, Thomas J.,AghaKouchak, Amir. Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes[J],2015,44(11-12):2947-2963.
APA Cheng, Linyin,Phillips, Thomas J.,&AghaKouchak, Amir.(2015).Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,44(11-12),2947-2963.
MLA Cheng, Linyin,et al."Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 44.11-12(2015):2947-2963.
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