Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-015-2625-y |
Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes | |
Cheng, Linyin1; Phillips, Thomas J.2; AghaKouchak, Amir1 | |
通讯作者 | AghaKouchak, Amir |
来源期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2015 |
卷号 | 44期号:11-12页码:2947-2963 |
英文摘要 | The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are most subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions. |
英文关键词 | Temperature Climate CMIP5 Extremes Return level Non-stationary |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000354705700002 |
WOS关键词 | WATER-ELECTRICITY NEXUS ; GREENLAND ICE-SHEET ; CLIMATE EXTREMES ; CONTINENTAL PRECIPITATION ; DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION ; EVALUATING OPTIONS ; FREQUENCY ; TRENDS ; SIMULATIONS ; STATISTICS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/186517 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697 USA; 2.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cheng, Linyin,Phillips, Thomas J.,AghaKouchak, Amir. Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes[J],2015,44(11-12):2947-2963. |
APA | Cheng, Linyin,Phillips, Thomas J.,&AghaKouchak, Amir.(2015).Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,44(11-12),2947-2963. |
MLA | Cheng, Linyin,et al."Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 44.11-12(2015):2947-2963. |
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文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
Non-stationary retur(13087KB) | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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