Arid
DOI10.1111/avsc.12133
Long-term climate forcings to assess vulnerability in North Africa dry argan woodlands
Alba-Sanchez, Francisca1; Antonio Lopez-Saez, Jose2; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego1,3; Svenning, Jens-Christian3
通讯作者Alba-Sanchez, Francisca
来源期刊APPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE
ISSN1402-2001
EISSN1654-109X
出版年2015
卷号18期号:2页码:283-296
英文摘要

Questions: North African dry woodlands constitute mediterranean climatic ecotone ecosystems of vital importance for human livelihoods and local biodiversity. To improve the basis for managing these key ecosystems, we selected a Tertiary relict woodland (Argania spinosa) in order to clarify the sensitivity to long-term climate change (the present, the past glacial-interglacial cycle and under future scenarios). We also discuss the impact of long-term human land use for the distribution of dry woodlands in North Africa.


Location: North Africa,


Methods: To assess whether the argan woodland is in equilibrium with current climate, we used species distribution modelling (SUM) to estimate its potential range. Then, SDM was used to estimate its potential distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21,000 BP) and the Middle Holocene (Mid-Holocene; 6,000 BP). Model predictions for past scenarios were compared with Quaternary palaeorecords to evaluate their accuracy. Finally, we forecasted changes in the potential range to year 2080 to assess its likely future range dynamics.


Results: At the LGM, suitable areas occurred at more southern latitudes, where the Sahara Desert currently lies, while suitable areas in the Mid-Holocene shifted northwards, occupying areas similar to those of today. The estimated past distributions are consistent with palaeorecords, providing evidence for the important role of Quaternary climate changes in driving dry woodland range dynami.cs. The current range-filling constitutes 44% of the potential distribution, probably primarily reflecting anthropic land-use effects. Future climate change is forecast not to cause latitudinal/altitudinal range shifts, but rather an overall range contraction.


Conclusions: The models reflect the high sensitivity of the dry woodland ecosystem to past climate changes, in agreement with palaeorecords. The estimated climatic sensitivity also predicts severe range contraction during future climate change. Consequently, management strategies for dry woodlands should be developed to facilitate their in situ survival, particularly by reducing the currently intensive human pressure.


英文关键词Argania spinosa Palaeobiogeography Pollen fossil records Quaternary Climate Change Sapotaceae Species Distribution Modelling
类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain ; Denmark
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000352131500013
WOS关键词SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; COUPLED MODEL ; SEA-LEVEL ; TREE ; MOROCCO ; HOLOCENE ; DROUGHT ; RECONSTRUCTION
WOS类目Plant Sciences ; Ecology ; Forestry
WOS研究方向Plant Sciences ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Forestry
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/185840
作者单位1.Univ Granada, Fac Ciencias, Dept Bot, E-18071 Granada, Spain;
2.CSIC, CCHS, Grp Invest Arqueobiol, Madrid 28037, Spain;
3.Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci, Sect Ecoinformat & Biodivers, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
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Alba-Sanchez, Francisca,Antonio Lopez-Saez, Jose,Nieto-Lugilde, Diego,et al. Long-term climate forcings to assess vulnerability in North Africa dry argan woodlands[J],2015,18(2):283-296.
APA Alba-Sanchez, Francisca,Antonio Lopez-Saez, Jose,Nieto-Lugilde, Diego,&Svenning, Jens-Christian.(2015).Long-term climate forcings to assess vulnerability in North Africa dry argan woodlands.APPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE,18(2),283-296.
MLA Alba-Sanchez, Francisca,et al."Long-term climate forcings to assess vulnerability in North Africa dry argan woodlands".APPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE 18.2(2015):283-296.
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