Arid
DOI10.1016/j.agwat.2015.03.013
A coupled random fuzzy two-stage programming model for crop area optimization - A case study of the middle Heihe River basin, China
Li, Mo; Guo, Ping
通讯作者Guo, Ping
来源期刊AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN0378-3774
EISSN1873-2283
出版年2015
卷号155页码:53-66
英文摘要

Crop area optimization is essential for agricultural water management. However, decision makers are challenged by the complexity of fluctuating stream condition and irrigation quota, varying economic profits and crop yield, as well as grayness and errors in the estimated modeling parameters. A random-fuzzy-variable-based inexact two-stage stochastic chance-constrained programming (RFV-ITSCCP) model is developed for crop area optimization in response to such complexities in more efficient and sustainable ways. The model is capable of tackling parameters’ dual uncertainties of both randomness and fuzziness and meanwhile reflecting uncertainties expressed as intervals and probability distributions. Moreover, the developed model is helpful for managers in gaining insight into the tradeoffs between the system benefit and the constraint-violation risk. The RFV-ITSCCP model is applied in crop area optimization in the middle reaches of Heihe River basin, northwest of China. The results provide crop area allocation under various flow levels with the maximum system benefit under uncertainty, minimizing the penalty due to water deficit especially in arid and semi-arid area. The results show that the system efficiency (benefit per unit area) increases by 13.2% than conventional linear programming (LP) model with the most credible fuzzy number values under the same condition of water supply, irrigation regimes and socio-economic conditions, which can demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of the developed RFV-ITSCCP model. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to analyze the impacts of key model parameters on the results. The obtained results are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the existing crop area patterns and identifying desired crop area schemes under complex uncertainties. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Random fuzzy variable Chance-constrained programming Inexact two-stage stochastic programming Crop area optimization Uncertainty
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000355035200006
WOS关键词WATER-RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ; FARM INCOME ; LAND ; IRRIGATION ; SYSTEM ; PROJECT ; UNCERTAINTY ; ALLOCATION
WOS类目Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Agriculture ; Water Resources
来源机构中国农业大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/185602
作者单位China Agr Univ, Ctr Agr Water Res China, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Mo,Guo, Ping. A coupled random fuzzy two-stage programming model for crop area optimization - A case study of the middle Heihe River basin, China[J]. 中国农业大学,2015,155:53-66.
APA Li, Mo,&Guo, Ping.(2015).A coupled random fuzzy two-stage programming model for crop area optimization - A case study of the middle Heihe River basin, China.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,155,53-66.
MLA Li, Mo,et al."A coupled random fuzzy two-stage programming model for crop area optimization - A case study of the middle Heihe River basin, China".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 155(2015):53-66.
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