Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.4314/wsa.v40i3.8 |
Changes in rainfall pattern in the eastern Karoo, South Africa, over the past 123 years | |
du Toit, Justin C. O.1; O’Connor, Timothy G.2 | |
通讯作者 | du Toit, Justin C. O. |
来源期刊 | WATER SA
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ISSN | 0378-4738 |
EISSN | 1816-7950 |
出版年 | 2014 |
卷号 | 40期号:3页码:453-460 |
英文摘要 | Rainfall is a key driver of ecosystem processes, especially vegetation dynamics, in semi-arid regions. Rainfall amount, including droughts and extended wet periods, seasonality, and, possibly, concentration, influence vegetation composition in the eastern Karoo. A monthly rainfall record of 123 years from Grootfontein was analysed to search for evidence of cyclicity in rainfall amount, seasonality, and concentration. Rainfall was substantially higher during the late 1800s and after 1990 than it was during the rest of the 20th century. Extended sequential below-average runs of years characterised the drought periods of the early 20th century and the 1960s. There was strong evidence of an approximately 20-year rainfall cycle, except for spring rain. Additionally, annual and seasonal rainfall showed evidence of a longer cycle, between 44 and 77 years, which may be related to the southern oscillation index. The additive effects of the two cycles described annual and seasonal rainfall with R-2 values typically > 0.5. Rainfall seasonality was also related to the longer-term cycle, while rainfall concentration showed some evidence of having entered a new, more concentrated state since 1988. The analysis reveals that rainfall at Grootfontein is not a random process, but rather appears driven by cyclical processes. Rainfall at the site is predicted to decline over the next approximately 20 years, and the high levels of variation and complex causal factors will make it difficult to discriminate between natural variation and possible effects of climate change on rainfall. |
英文关键词 | semi-arid rainfall concentration rainfall seasonality periodicity cyclicity |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands ; South Africa |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000346631300008 |
WOS关键词 | SOLAR-ACTIVITY ; VARIABILITY ; GRASS |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/185294 |
作者单位 | 1.Grootfontein Agr Dev Inst, NL-5900 Middelburg, Netherlands; 2.South African Environm Observat Network, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | du Toit, Justin C. O.,O’Connor, Timothy G.. Changes in rainfall pattern in the eastern Karoo, South Africa, over the past 123 years[J],2014,40(3):453-460. |
APA | du Toit, Justin C. O.,&O’Connor, Timothy G..(2014).Changes in rainfall pattern in the eastern Karoo, South Africa, over the past 123 years.WATER SA,40(3),453-460. |
MLA | du Toit, Justin C. O.,et al."Changes in rainfall pattern in the eastern Karoo, South Africa, over the past 123 years".WATER SA 40.3(2014):453-460. |
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