Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s10113-013-0414-x |
Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975-2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability | |
Ziv, Baruch1; Saaroni, Hadas2; Pargament, Roee2; Harpaz, Tzvi1,2; Alpert, Pinhas3,4 | |
通讯作者 | Saaroni, Hadas |
来源期刊 | REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE |
ISSN | 1436-3798 |
EISSN | 1436-378X |
出版年 | 2014 |
卷号 | 14期号:5页码:1751-1764 |
英文摘要 | Variations and trends in the rain regime of Israel are analyzed for 1975-2010, when persistent global warming has been observed. Negative trend is observed over the majority of Israel, statistically significant only in the super-arid region. The decrease is significant over the majority of Israel only in the spring, reflecting a shortening of the rainy season, > 3 days/decade. The dry spells are becoming longer, significantly in most of the stations. The factors affecting these variations, synoptic systems, large-scale oscillations and global temperature, were studied for extended period, 1953-2010. A simple multiple stepwise regression model applied for the inter-annual rainfall variations indicates that the occurrence of Cyprus lows is the dominant factor and the Mediterranean oscillation index, MOI2, is also a significant factor. In order to reduce the inter-annual noise and reveal inter-decadal variations, the time-series of the rainfall and its potential predictors were smoothed by 11-year window, showing an increase toward the 1990s, followed by a decrease, at a higher rate, onward. Correspondingly, the aridity lines propagated southward till the mid-1990s and then withdrew back, at a larger rate. The large-scale oscillations and the global temperature explain 83 % of the variance on the inter-decadal time-scale, half of it explained by the global temperature alone. The findings of this study support the expected poleward expansion of the Hadley cell due to global warming. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Climatic variations Trends Spatial and temporal variations Cyprus low Large-scale oscillations Mediterranean |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000342455400007 |
WOS关键词 | MEDITERRANEAN PRECIPITATION ; DECADAL TRENDS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MIDDLE-EAST ; PATTERNS ; EXTREMES ; CONVECTION ; MESOSCALE ; INCREASE ; INDEXES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/184647 |
作者单位 | 1.Open Univ Israel, Dept Nat Sci, IL-43537 Raanana, Israel; 2.Tel Aviv Univ, Dept Geog & Human Environm, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel; 3.Tel Aviv Univ, Dept Geophys Planetary & Atmospher Sci, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel; 4.Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm Studies, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ziv, Baruch,Saaroni, Hadas,Pargament, Roee,et al. Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975-2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability[J],2014,14(5):1751-1764. |
APA | Ziv, Baruch,Saaroni, Hadas,Pargament, Roee,Harpaz, Tzvi,&Alpert, Pinhas.(2014).Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975-2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,14(5),1751-1764. |
MLA | Ziv, Baruch,et al."Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975-2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 14.5(2014):1751-1764. |
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