Arid
DOI10.1111/jawr.12199
IMPACTS OF 21ST-CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC EXTREMES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION OF NORTH AMERICA
Tohver, Ingrid M.1; Hamlet, Alan F.1,2; Lee, Se-Yeun1,3
通讯作者Tohver, Ingrid M.
来源期刊JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION
ISSN1093-474X
EISSN1752-1688
出版年2014
卷号50期号:6页码:1461-1476
英文摘要

Climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America include warmer temperatures (T), reduced precipitation (P) in summer months, and increased P during all other seasons. Using a physically based hydrologic model and an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate model scenarios produced by the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, we examine the nature of changing hydrologic extremes (floods and low flows) under natural conditions for about 300 river locations in the PNW. The combination of warming, and shifts in seasonal P regimes, results in increased flooding and more intense low flows for most of the basins in the PNW. Flood responses depend on average midwinter T and basin type. Mixed rain and snow basins, with average winter temperatures near freezing, typically show the largest increases in flood risk because of the combined effects of warming (increasing contributing basin area) and more winter P. Decreases in low flows are driven by loss of snowpack, drier summers, and increasing evapotranspiration in the simulations. Energy-limited basins on the west side of the Cascades show the strongest declines in low flows, whereas more arid, water-limited basins on the east side of the Cascades show smaller reductions in low flows. A fine-scale analysis of hydrologic extremes over the Olympic Peninsula echoes the results for the larger rivers discussed above, but provides additional detail about topographic gradients.


英文关键词Columbia River basin hydrologic extremes flood low flow climate change downscaled global climate models hydrologic models
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000345773900008
WOS关键词WESTERN UNITED-STATES ; COLUMBIA RIVER-BASIN ; WATER MANAGEMENT ; WASHINGTON-STATE ; SALMON ; STATISTICS ; SNOWPACK ; MODELS ; TRENDS ; USA
WOS类目Engineering, Environmental ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/183690
作者单位1.Univ Washington, Climate Impacts Grp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
2.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Civil & Environm Engn & Earth Sci, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA;
3.Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
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GB/T 7714
Tohver, Ingrid M.,Hamlet, Alan F.,Lee, Se-Yeun. IMPACTS OF 21ST-CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC EXTREMES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION OF NORTH AMERICA[J],2014,50(6):1461-1476.
APA Tohver, Ingrid M.,Hamlet, Alan F.,&Lee, Se-Yeun.(2014).IMPACTS OF 21ST-CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC EXTREMES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION OF NORTH AMERICA.JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION,50(6),1461-1476.
MLA Tohver, Ingrid M.,et al."IMPACTS OF 21ST-CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC EXTREMES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION OF NORTH AMERICA".JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 50.6(2014):1461-1476.
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