Arid
DOI10.1175/JHM-D-13-058.1
Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble
Xia, Youlong1,2; Ek, Michael B.2; Mocko, David3,4; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.3; Sheffield, Justin5; Dong, Jiarui1,2; Wood, Eric F.5
通讯作者Xia, Youlong
来源期刊JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
ISSN1525-755X
EISSN1525-7541
出版年2014
卷号15期号:4页码:1636-1650
英文摘要

This study analyzed uncertainties and correlations over the United States among four ensemble-mean North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) percentile-based drought indices derived from monthly mean evapotranspiration ET, total runoff Q, top 1-m soil moisture SM1, and total column soil moisture SMT. The results show that the uncertainty is smallest for SM1, largest for SMT, and moderate for ET and Q. The strongest correlation is between SM1 and SMT, and the weakest correlation is between ET and Q. The correlation between ET and SM1 (SMT) is strongest in arid-semiarid regions, and the correlation between Q and SM1 (SMT) is strongest in more humid regions in the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Drought frequency analysis shows that SM1 has the most frequent drought occurrence, followed by SMT, Q, and ET. The study compared the NLDAS drought indices (a research product) with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM; an operational product) in terms of drought area percentage derived from each product. It proposes an optimal blend of NLDAS drought indices by searching for weights for each index that minimizes the RMSE between NLDAS and USDM drought area percentage for a 10-yr period (2000-09) with a cross validation. It reconstructed a 30-yr (1980-2009) Objective Blended NLDAS Drought Index (OBNDI) and monthly drought percentage. Overall, the OBNDI performs the best with the smallest RMSE, followed by SM1 and SMT. It should be noted that the contribution to OBNDI from different variables varies with region. So a single formula is probably not the best representation of a blended index. The representation of a blended index using the multiple formulas will be addressed in a future study.


类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000339697000020
WOS关键词ASSIMILATION SYSTEM NLDAS ; UNITED-STATES ; 20TH-CENTURY DROUGHT ; MONITOR
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/183483
作者单位1.Environm Modeling Ctr, IMSG, College Pk, MD 20740 USA;
2.NOAA, NCEP, EMC, IMSG, College Pk, MD 20740 USA;
3.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Hydrol Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA;
4.SAIC, Greenbelt, MD USA;
5.Princeton Univ, Dept Environm & Civil Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Xia, Youlong,Ek, Michael B.,Mocko, David,et al. Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble[J],2014,15(4):1636-1650.
APA Xia, Youlong.,Ek, Michael B..,Mocko, David.,Peters-Lidard, Christa D..,Sheffield, Justin.,...&Wood, Eric F..(2014).Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,15(4),1636-1650.
MLA Xia, Youlong,et al."Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 15.4(2014):1636-1650.
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