Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1175/JHM-D-13-058.1 |
Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble | |
Xia, Youlong1,2; Ek, Michael B.2; Mocko, David3,4; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.3; Sheffield, Justin5; Dong, Jiarui1,2; Wood, Eric F.5 | |
通讯作者 | Xia, Youlong |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
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ISSN | 1525-755X |
EISSN | 1525-7541 |
出版年 | 2014 |
卷号 | 15期号:4页码:1636-1650 |
英文摘要 | This study analyzed uncertainties and correlations over the United States among four ensemble-mean North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) percentile-based drought indices derived from monthly mean evapotranspiration ET, total runoff Q, top 1-m soil moisture SM1, and total column soil moisture SMT. The results show that the uncertainty is smallest for SM1, largest for SMT, and moderate for ET and Q. The strongest correlation is between SM1 and SMT, and the weakest correlation is between ET and Q. The correlation between ET and SM1 (SMT) is strongest in arid-semiarid regions, and the correlation between Q and SM1 (SMT) is strongest in more humid regions in the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Drought frequency analysis shows that SM1 has the most frequent drought occurrence, followed by SMT, Q, and ET. The study compared the NLDAS drought indices (a research product) with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM; an operational product) in terms of drought area percentage derived from each product. It proposes an optimal blend of NLDAS drought indices by searching for weights for each index that minimizes the RMSE between NLDAS and USDM drought area percentage for a 10-yr period (2000-09) with a cross validation. It reconstructed a 30-yr (1980-2009) Objective Blended NLDAS Drought Index (OBNDI) and monthly drought percentage. Overall, the OBNDI performs the best with the smallest RMSE, followed by SM1 and SMT. It should be noted that the contribution to OBNDI from different variables varies with region. So a single formula is probably not the best representation of a blended index. The representation of a blended index using the multiple formulas will be addressed in a future study. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000339697000020 |
WOS关键词 | ASSIMILATION SYSTEM NLDAS ; UNITED-STATES ; 20TH-CENTURY DROUGHT ; MONITOR |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/183483 |
作者单位 | 1.Environm Modeling Ctr, IMSG, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 2.NOAA, NCEP, EMC, IMSG, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 3.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Hydrol Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA; 4.SAIC, Greenbelt, MD USA; 5.Princeton Univ, Dept Environm & Civil Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xia, Youlong,Ek, Michael B.,Mocko, David,et al. Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble[J],2014,15(4):1636-1650. |
APA | Xia, Youlong.,Ek, Michael B..,Mocko, David.,Peters-Lidard, Christa D..,Sheffield, Justin.,...&Wood, Eric F..(2014).Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,15(4),1636-1650. |
MLA | Xia, Youlong,et al."Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 15.4(2014):1636-1650. |
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