Arid
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.003
Combined uncertainty of hydrological model complexity and satellite-based forcing data evaluated in two data-scarce semi-arid catchments in Ethiopia
Knoche, Malte1; Fischer, Christian2; Pohl, Eric3; Krause, Peter4; Merz, Ralf1
通讯作者Knoche, Malte
来源期刊JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
EISSN1879-2707
出版年2014
卷号519页码:2049-2066
英文摘要

In water resources modeling, meteorological data scarcity can be compensated by various global data sets, but those data sets can differ tremendously. In the literature, hydrological models of differing complexity are proposed for estimating the water resources of semi-arid catchments, and also to evaluate rainfall data sets. The goal of this paper is to provide a joint analysis of modeling uncertainty due to different input data and increasing model complexity. Impacts of mutually concealed uncertainties on model performance and model outputs are exemplified in two data sparse semi-arid catchments in Ethiopia. We applied a semi-distributed and a fully distributed hydrological model, having different levels of complexity. Three different satellite-based rainfall data sets and two temperature products were used as model inputs. The semi-distributed model demonstrated good validation performances, while the fully distributed model was more sensitive to data uncertainties. The application of TRMM version 6 completely failed and the high-resolution CMORPH precipitation estimate outperformed TRMM version 7. In contrast, the use of high-resolution temperature data did not improve the model results. The large differences in remotely sensed input data were buffered inside the hydrological models. Therefore, data set evaluations regarding only the simulated hydrographs were less meaningful. In contrast, the investigation of parameter evolution and distributed outputs’ variability appeared to be a valuable tool to uncover the interdependencies of data and model uncertainties. We suggest this procedure to be applied by default in water resources estimations that are affected by data scarcity, but especially when data sets are evaluated using hydrological models. Our case study demonstrates that estimations of groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration vary largely, depending on the applied data sets and models. The joint analysis reveals large interdependencies between data and model evaluations. It shows that traditional studies focusing only on one part of uncertainty, either the input uncertainty or the uncertainty arising from the choice of model structure are limited in their explanatory power of the modeling performance, particularly in poorly gauged regions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Hydrological modeling Data scarcity Uncertainty Remote sensing precipitation Model complexity East Africa
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000347018100067
WOS关键词MULTISATELLITE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS ; LAND-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ENERGY BALANCE ALGORITHM ; DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM ; WATER-BALANCE ; RIVER-BASIN ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALGORITHM ; ENVIRONMENTAL ISOTOPES ; RAINFALL PRODUCTS ; MODIS
WOS类目Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/183456
作者单位1.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Catchment Hydrol, D-06120 Halle, Germany;
2.Univ Jena, Dept Geoinformat Hydrol & Modelling, D-07743 Jena, Germany;
3.Bergakad Freiberg Univ Min & Technol, Inst Geol, Remote Sensing Grp, D-09599 Freiberg, Germany;
4.Thuringen State Inst Environm & Geol, D-07745 Jena, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Knoche, Malte,Fischer, Christian,Pohl, Eric,et al. Combined uncertainty of hydrological model complexity and satellite-based forcing data evaluated in two data-scarce semi-arid catchments in Ethiopia[J],2014,519:2049-2066.
APA Knoche, Malte,Fischer, Christian,Pohl, Eric,Krause, Peter,&Merz, Ralf.(2014).Combined uncertainty of hydrological model complexity and satellite-based forcing data evaluated in two data-scarce semi-arid catchments in Ethiopia.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,519,2049-2066.
MLA Knoche, Malte,et al."Combined uncertainty of hydrological model complexity and satellite-based forcing data evaluated in two data-scarce semi-arid catchments in Ethiopia".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 519(2014):2049-2066.
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