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To restore declining species, including Populus euphratica and other riparian communities, in the river ecosystem of the lower Tarim River, the ecological water conveyance project (EWCP), as a part of an integrated water resource management plan, was implemented in 2000. The EWCP aims to schedule and manage the water resources in the upper reaches and transfer water to the lower reaches by a series of intermittent water deliveries. The delivered water flows along a modified river channel and nourishes riparian communities by river overflow flooding. Since it began, it has caused a fierce debate over the response of riparian vegetation to the water conveyance scheme. This study focuses on the lower Tarim River, where Populus euphratica forests have undergone watering, due to the EWCP. Twelve Landsat sensor images and one IKONOS satellite imagery acquired between 1999 and 2009 were used to monitor the change in Populus euphratica forests. Bi-temporal change detection and temporal trajectory analysis were employed to represent the spatial pattern of the forest change. Field investigations were used to analyze the driving forces behind forest change from the perspectives of anthropogenic activities and natural forces. The results showed that Populus euphratica forest have been declining in area, which implies that ecological risks have been increased during the watering process. However, forests areas have increased in the regions where the water supply is abundant, and vice versa.