Arid
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021
Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic
Hansen, Brage B.1; Isaksen, Ketil2; Benestad, Rasmus E.2; Kohler, Jack3; Pedersen, Ashild O.3; Loe, Leif E.4; Coulson, Stephen J.5; Larsen, Jan Otto5,6; Varpe, Oystein5,7
通讯作者Hansen, Brage B.
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2014
卷号9期号:11
英文摘要

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 degrees C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (similar to 5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 degrees C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.


英文关键词climate change impact wildlife permafrost icing warm spell rain on snow avalanche risk
类型Article
语种英语
国家Norway
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000346573900027
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; POPULATION-DYNAMICS ; PERMAFROST ; SVALBARD ; SNOW ; RAIN ; COMMUNITY ; RESPONSES ; PROJECT ; CYCLES
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/181947
作者单位1.Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Dept Biol, Ctr Biodivers Dynam, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;
2.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, NO-0313 Oslo, Norway;
3.Norwegian Polar Res Inst, Fram Ctr, NO-9296 Tromso, Norway;
4.Norwegian Univ Life Sci NMBU, NO-1432 As, Norway;
5.Univ Ctr Svalbard, NO-9171 Longyearbyen, Norway;
6.Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Transport Engn, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;
7.Akvaplan Niva, Fram Ctr, NO-9296 Tromso, Norway
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Hansen, Brage B.,Isaksen, Ketil,Benestad, Rasmus E.,et al. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic[J],2014,9(11).
APA Hansen, Brage B..,Isaksen, Ketil.,Benestad, Rasmus E..,Kohler, Jack.,Pedersen, Ashild O..,...&Varpe, Oystein.(2014).Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,9(11).
MLA Hansen, Brage B.,et al."Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 9.11(2014).
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