Arid
DOI10.1007/s12665-014-3238-1
An integrated approach to conceptualise hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems
Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos; Grundmann, Jens; Schuetze, Niels; Schmitz, Gerd H.
通讯作者Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN1866-6280
EISSN1866-6299
出版年2014
卷号72期号:12页码:4917-4933
英文摘要

The management of complex interacting hydrosystems is challenging if in addition to the physical processes also socio-economic and environmental aspects have to be considered. This causes conflicts of interests among various water actors with mostly contradicting objectives and uncertainties about the consequences of potential management interventions. The objective of this paper is to present a methodological framework to support decision making under uncertainties for the management of complex hydrosystems. The proposed framework conceptualises hydrological and socio-economic interactions by constructing a Bayesian network (BN)-based decision support tool for a typical management problem of agricultural coastal regions. Thereby, the paper demonstrates the value of combining two different commonly used integrated modelling approaches. Coupled domain models are applied to simulate the nonlinearities and feedbacks of a strongly interacting groundwater-agriculture hydrosystem. Afterwards, a BN is used to integrate their results together with empirical knowledge and expert opinions regarding potential management interventions. A prototype application is performed for a coastal arid region, which is affected by saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture. It addresses the issues of contradicting management objectives such as sustainable aquifer management vs. profitable agricultural production and the problem of finding appropriate management interventions or policies. Several policy combinations have been analysed regarding their efficiency within different management scenarios in a probabilistic way, which enables decision makers to assess the risks associated with implementing alternative management strategies. In addition, efficient metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of the developed task-specific BN are used which underline the reliability of the results.


英文关键词Bayesian network Simulation-optimisation Integrated management Decision support tool Groundwater Agriculture
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000345407000018
WOS关键词SIMULATION-BASED OPTIMIZATION ; WATER-RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ; BAYESIAN NETWORKS ; RIVER-BASIN ; REGION ; UNCERTAINTY ; IRRIGATION ; INTRUSION ; CHINA ; MODEL
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/181882
作者单位Tech Univ Dresden, Inst Hydrol & Meteorol, D-01069 Dresden, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos,Grundmann, Jens,Schuetze, Niels,et al. An integrated approach to conceptualise hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems[J],2014,72(12):4917-4933.
APA Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos,Grundmann, Jens,Schuetze, Niels,&Schmitz, Gerd H..(2014).An integrated approach to conceptualise hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems.ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,72(12),4917-4933.
MLA Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos,et al."An integrated approach to conceptualise hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems".ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 72.12(2014):4917-4933.
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