Arid
DOI10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.009
Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches
Jakoby, Oliver1,2; Grimm, Volker1,3,4; Frank, Karin1,4,5
通讯作者Jakoby, Oliver
来源期刊ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
ISSN0304-3800
EISSN1872-7026
出版年2014
卷号275页码:78-88
英文摘要

General ecological models address classes of systems instead of focusing on specific systems. However, a major challenge when using general models for ecological applications is parameterization. This process involves a trade-off between analyzing the entire parameter space, which might be misleading because unrealistic parameter combinations are likely to be included, versus analyzing the model for a specific parameter set, which limits its generality. Here, we present a parameterization strategy that excludes unrealistic parameter combinations, without focusing on specific systems. This strategy adapts pattern-oriented modeling (POM) for general models. We employ a set of qualitative patterns that describe and thereby define the class of systems to be represented with the general model. Each pattern is employed to filter parameter sets that would lead to uncharacteristic model behavior. As an example, we use a general model of semi-arid rangelands that links vegetation biomass dynamics, livestock grazing, and management. The purpose of the model is to compare constant and adaptive stocking strategies. Through the pattern-oriented parameterization method, we narrow the parameter space significantly, from one billion to approximately 11,000 parameter sets. The remaining parameter sets reveal interrelationships between model parameters and processes. This increased our understanding of the model and is therefore useful for addressing applied management questions. Using the parameterized model, we found that adaptive stocking is beneficial for livestock production in all cases. Storage biomass dynamics appear to be the most important process for evaluating stocking strategies. Consequently, adaptive stocking is particularly beneficial in rangelands that are vulnerable to storage degradation by overgrazing. Our pattern-oriented parameterization provides a new way to use general models to support decision making, while avoiding the two pitfalls of employing either unrealistic parameter combinations or having an excessively narrow focus. Additionally, this approach supports systems analysis by revealing interactions and trade-offs between parameters and their corresponding processes. In summary, our approach allows the use of general models supporting a realistic evaluation of management approaches. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Inverse modeling Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) Semi-arid rangeland model Constant vs. opportunistic rangeland management
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany ; Switzerland
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000331508700008
WOS关键词RAIN-USE EFFICIENCY ; SIMULATION-MODELS ; SOUTH-AFRICA ; GRAZING SYSTEMS ; PRECIPITATION ; NONEQUILIBRIUM ; RANGELANDS ; DYNAMICS ; SAVANNA ; LANDS
WOS类目Ecology
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/181691
作者单位1.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;
2.Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;
3.Inst Biochem & Biol, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany;
4.German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv Halle Jena, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany;
5.Univ Osnabruck, Inst Environm Syst Res USF, D-49069 Osnabruck, Germany
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GB/T 7714
Jakoby, Oliver,Grimm, Volker,Frank, Karin. Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches[J],2014,275:78-88.
APA Jakoby, Oliver,Grimm, Volker,&Frank, Karin.(2014).Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches.ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,275,78-88.
MLA Jakoby, Oliver,et al."Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches".ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 275(2014):78-88.
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