Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.009 |
Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches | |
Jakoby, Oliver1,2; Grimm, Volker1,3,4; Frank, Karin1,4,5 | |
通讯作者 | Jakoby, Oliver |
来源期刊 | ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
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ISSN | 0304-3800 |
EISSN | 1872-7026 |
出版年 | 2014 |
卷号 | 275页码:78-88 |
英文摘要 | General ecological models address classes of systems instead of focusing on specific systems. However, a major challenge when using general models for ecological applications is parameterization. This process involves a trade-off between analyzing the entire parameter space, which might be misleading because unrealistic parameter combinations are likely to be included, versus analyzing the model for a specific parameter set, which limits its generality. Here, we present a parameterization strategy that excludes unrealistic parameter combinations, without focusing on specific systems. This strategy adapts pattern-oriented modeling (POM) for general models. We employ a set of qualitative patterns that describe and thereby define the class of systems to be represented with the general model. Each pattern is employed to filter parameter sets that would lead to uncharacteristic model behavior. As an example, we use a general model of semi-arid rangelands that links vegetation biomass dynamics, livestock grazing, and management. The purpose of the model is to compare constant and adaptive stocking strategies. Through the pattern-oriented parameterization method, we narrow the parameter space significantly, from one billion to approximately 11,000 parameter sets. The remaining parameter sets reveal interrelationships between model parameters and processes. This increased our understanding of the model and is therefore useful for addressing applied management questions. Using the parameterized model, we found that adaptive stocking is beneficial for livestock production in all cases. Storage biomass dynamics appear to be the most important process for evaluating stocking strategies. Consequently, adaptive stocking is particularly beneficial in rangelands that are vulnerable to storage degradation by overgrazing. Our pattern-oriented parameterization provides a new way to use general models to support decision making, while avoiding the two pitfalls of employing either unrealistic parameter combinations or having an excessively narrow focus. Additionally, this approach supports systems analysis by revealing interactions and trade-offs between parameters and their corresponding processes. In summary, our approach allows the use of general models supporting a realistic evaluation of management approaches. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Inverse modeling Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) Semi-arid rangeland model Constant vs. opportunistic rangeland management |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany ; Switzerland |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000331508700008 |
WOS关键词 | RAIN-USE EFFICIENCY ; SIMULATION-MODELS ; SOUTH-AFRICA ; GRAZING SYSTEMS ; PRECIPITATION ; NONEQUILIBRIUM ; RANGELANDS ; DYNAMICS ; SAVANNA ; LANDS |
WOS类目 | Ecology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/181691 |
作者单位 | 1.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany; 2.Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; 3.Inst Biochem & Biol, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany; 4.German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv Halle Jena, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany; 5.Univ Osnabruck, Inst Environm Syst Res USF, D-49069 Osnabruck, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jakoby, Oliver,Grimm, Volker,Frank, Karin. Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches[J],2014,275:78-88. |
APA | Jakoby, Oliver,Grimm, Volker,&Frank, Karin.(2014).Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches.ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,275,78-88. |
MLA | Jakoby, Oliver,et al."Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches".ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 275(2014):78-88. |
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