Arid
DOI10.1007/s10584-013-1020-0
Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 (st) century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification
Elguindi, N.1; Grundstein, A.2; Bernardes, S.3; Turuncoglu, U.4; Feddema, J.5
通讯作者Elguindi, N.
来源期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2014
卷号122期号:4页码:523-538
英文摘要

A modified Thornthwaite Climate Classification is applied to a 32-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs in order to 1) evaluate model performance in the historical climate and 2) assess projected climate change at the end of the 21 (s t) century following two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This classification scheme differs from the well-known Koppen approach as it uses potential evapotranspiration for thermal conditions, a moisture index for moisture conditions, and has even intervals between climate classes. The multi-model ensemble (MME) reproduces the main spatial features of the global climate reasonably well, however, in many regions the climate types are too moist. Extreme climate types, such as those found in polar and desert regions, as well as the cool- and cold-wet types of eastern North America and the warm and cool-moist types found in the southern U.S., eastern South America, central Africa and Europe are reproduced best by the MME. In contrast, the cold-dry and cold-semiarid climate types characterizing much of the high northern latitudes and the warm-wet type found in parts of Indonesia and southeast Asia are poorly represented by the MME. Regionally, most models exhibit the same sign in moisture and thermal biases, varying only in magnitude. Substantial changes in climate types are projected in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Area coverage of torrid climate types expands by 11 % and 19 % in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, respectively. Furthermore, a large portion of these areas in the tropics will experience thermal conditions which exceed the range of historical values and fall into a novel super torrid climate class. The greatest growth in moisture types in climate zones is among those with dry climates (moisture index values < 0) with increased areas of more than 8 % projected by the RCP8.5 MME.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Italy ; USA ; Turkey
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000331973200001
WOS关键词WATER-BALANCE ; SHIFTS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; EVAPORATION ; AGREEMENT ; TROPICS ; RANGE ; MAPS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/181422
作者单位1.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, Trieste, Italy;
2.Univ Georgia, Dept Geog, Athens, GA 30602 USA;
3.Univ Georgia, Dept Geog, Ctr Geospatial Res, Athens, GA 30602 USA;
4.Istanbul Tech Univ, Inst Informat, TR-80626 Istanbul, Turkey;
5.Univ Kansas, Dept Geog, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Elguindi, N.,Grundstein, A.,Bernardes, S.,et al. Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 (st) century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification[J],2014,122(4):523-538.
APA Elguindi, N.,Grundstein, A.,Bernardes, S.,Turuncoglu, U.,&Feddema, J..(2014).Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 (st) century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification.CLIMATIC CHANGE,122(4),523-538.
MLA Elguindi, N.,et al."Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 (st) century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification".CLIMATIC CHANGE 122.4(2014):523-538.
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