Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-013-1020-0 |
Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 (st) century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification | |
Elguindi, N.1; Grundstein, A.2; Bernardes, S.3; Turuncoglu, U.4; Feddema, J.5 | |
通讯作者 | Elguindi, N. |
来源期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2014 |
卷号 | 122期号:4页码:523-538 |
英文摘要 | A modified Thornthwaite Climate Classification is applied to a 32-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs in order to 1) evaluate model performance in the historical climate and 2) assess projected climate change at the end of the 21 (s t) century following two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This classification scheme differs from the well-known Koppen approach as it uses potential evapotranspiration for thermal conditions, a moisture index for moisture conditions, and has even intervals between climate classes. The multi-model ensemble (MME) reproduces the main spatial features of the global climate reasonably well, however, in many regions the climate types are too moist. Extreme climate types, such as those found in polar and desert regions, as well as the cool- and cold-wet types of eastern North America and the warm and cool-moist types found in the southern U.S., eastern South America, central Africa and Europe are reproduced best by the MME. In contrast, the cold-dry and cold-semiarid climate types characterizing much of the high northern latitudes and the warm-wet type found in parts of Indonesia and southeast Asia are poorly represented by the MME. Regionally, most models exhibit the same sign in moisture and thermal biases, varying only in magnitude. Substantial changes in climate types are projected in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Area coverage of torrid climate types expands by 11 % and 19 % in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, respectively. Furthermore, a large portion of these areas in the tropics will experience thermal conditions which exceed the range of historical values and fall into a novel super torrid climate class. The greatest growth in moisture types in climate zones is among those with dry climates (moisture index values < 0) with increased areas of more than 8 % projected by the RCP8.5 MME. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy ; USA ; Turkey |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000331973200001 |
WOS关键词 | WATER-BALANCE ; SHIFTS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; EVAPORATION ; AGREEMENT ; TROPICS ; RANGE ; MAPS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/181422 |
作者单位 | 1.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, Trieste, Italy; 2.Univ Georgia, Dept Geog, Athens, GA 30602 USA; 3.Univ Georgia, Dept Geog, Ctr Geospatial Res, Athens, GA 30602 USA; 4.Istanbul Tech Univ, Inst Informat, TR-80626 Istanbul, Turkey; 5.Univ Kansas, Dept Geog, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Elguindi, N.,Grundstein, A.,Bernardes, S.,et al. Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 (st) century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification[J],2014,122(4):523-538. |
APA | Elguindi, N.,Grundstein, A.,Bernardes, S.,Turuncoglu, U.,&Feddema, J..(2014).Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 (st) century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification.CLIMATIC CHANGE,122(4),523-538. |
MLA | Elguindi, N.,et al."Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 (st) century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification".CLIMATIC CHANGE 122.4(2014):523-538. |
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