Arid
DOI10.5194/cp-10-551-2014
Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations
Perez-Sanz, A.1,2; Li, G.2; Gonzalez-Samperiz, P.1; Harrison, S. P.2,3,4
通讯作者Perez-Sanz, A.
来源期刊CLIMATE OF THE PAST
ISSN1814-9324
EISSN1814-9332
出版年2014
卷号10期号:2页码:551-568
英文摘要

We analyse the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in pre-industrial (piControl) and mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6 yr BP) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in the piControl simulations, but overestimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene, the models simulate a reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows most models underestimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on midHolocene anomalies in ocean-atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in Mediterranean climate.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain ; Australia ; England
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000335374600009
WOS关键词LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM ; CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; PMIP2 COUPLED SIMULATIONS ; SYSTEM MODEL ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; SYNERGISTIC FEEDBACKS ; FUTURE PROJECTIONS ; CULTURAL-CHANGE ; MID-LATITUDE ; VEGETATION
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/181413
作者单位1.IPE CSIC, Pyrenean Inst Ecol, Zaragoza 50059, Spain;
2.Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia;
3.Univ Reading, Ctr Climates, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England;
4.Univ Reading, SAGES, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England
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GB/T 7714
Perez-Sanz, A.,Li, G.,Gonzalez-Samperiz, P.,et al. Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations[J],2014,10(2):551-568.
APA Perez-Sanz, A.,Li, G.,Gonzalez-Samperiz, P.,&Harrison, S. P..(2014).Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations.CLIMATE OF THE PAST,10(2),551-568.
MLA Perez-Sanz, A.,et al."Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations".CLIMATE OF THE PAST 10.2(2014):551-568.
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