Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s13369-013-0810-z |
Markov Chain-Incorporated Artificial Neural Network Models for Forecasting Monthly Precipitation in Arid Regions | |
Dahamsheh, Ahmad1; Aksoy, Hafzullah2 | |
通讯作者 | Aksoy, Hafzullah |
来源期刊 | ARABIAN JOURNAL FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
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ISSN | 1319-8025 |
EISSN | 2191-4281 |
出版年 | 2014 |
卷号 | 39期号:4页码:2513-2524 |
英文摘要 | Forecasting monthly precipitation in arid and semi-arid regions is investigated by feed forward back-propa gation (FFBP), radial basis function, and generalized regression artificial neural networks (ANNs). The ANN models are improved by incorporating a Markov chain-based algorithm (MC-ANNs) with which the percentage of dry months is determined such that the non-physical negative values of precipitation generated by ANN models are eliminated. Monthly precipitation data from three meteorological stations in Jordan are used for case studies. The MC-ANN models are compared based on determination coefficient, mean square error, percentage of dry months and additional performance criteria. A comparison to ANN models without MC incorporated is also made. It is concluded that the MC-ANN models are slightly better than ANN models without MC in forecasting monthly precipitation while they are found appropriate in preserving the percentage of dry months to prevent generation of non-physical negative precipitation. |
英文关键词 | Artificial neural networks Intermittent precipitation Jordan Markov chain |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Jordan ; Turkey |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000335757000008 |
WOS关键词 | JORDAN ; RAINFALL ; PREDICTION ; BASIN |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/180754 |
作者单位 | 1.Al Hussein Bin Tallal Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Coll Engn, Maan, Jordan; 2.Istanbul Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, TR-34469 Istanbul, Turkey |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dahamsheh, Ahmad,Aksoy, Hafzullah. Markov Chain-Incorporated Artificial Neural Network Models for Forecasting Monthly Precipitation in Arid Regions[J],2014,39(4):2513-2524. |
APA | Dahamsheh, Ahmad,&Aksoy, Hafzullah.(2014).Markov Chain-Incorporated Artificial Neural Network Models for Forecasting Monthly Precipitation in Arid Regions.ARABIAN JOURNAL FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING,39(4),2513-2524. |
MLA | Dahamsheh, Ahmad,et al."Markov Chain-Incorporated Artificial Neural Network Models for Forecasting Monthly Precipitation in Arid Regions".ARABIAN JOURNAL FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 39.4(2014):2513-2524. |
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