Arid
DOI10.1155/2014/548230
Trends in Dryness Index Based on Potential Evapotranspiration and Precipitation over 1961-2099 in Xinjiang, China
Li, Yi; Zhou, Mudan
通讯作者Li, Yi
来源期刊ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY
ISSN1687-9309
EISSN1687-9317
出版年2014
英文摘要

Under the background of global warming, deep understanding for drought-related index is important. The spatial distributions and trends in annual mean (AM) climatic data, including P-AM, ETo,AM and DIAM in Xinjiang, China, were analyzed. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied. Future P-AM, ETo,AM, and DIAM series were generated and used to analyze their temporal trends, along with the historical climatic data. The results showed that (1) over 1960-2010, DIAM varied greatly and ranged from 1.5 to 479.6. Trends in DIAM decreased significantly. The regional climate turned to be from arid to humid in the past; (2) over 2015-2099, DIAM ranged between 1.9 and 198.5 under A2 scenario and 1.6 and 130.4 under B2 scenario. Trends in DIWR decreased insignificantly under A2 scenario and significantly under B2 scenario, indicating a weak drought stress from the future climate; (3) the modified Mann-Kendal (MKK) test generally decreased the significance of the trends because it considered the limitation of serial autocorrelation. Robust trend test of MMK method was recommended considering its rigor property. In conclusion, the drought in Xinjiang tends to be relieved over 2015-2099 compared to 1960-2010.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000345011500001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; REGIONAL DROUGHT ; ASSESSING UNCERTAINTIES ; DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES ; ARIDITY INDEX ; RAINFALL ; MODEL ; SIMULATIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/180403
作者单位Northwest Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Water Resources & Architecture Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Yi,Zhou, Mudan. Trends in Dryness Index Based on Potential Evapotranspiration and Precipitation over 1961-2099 in Xinjiang, China[J],2014.
APA Li, Yi,&Zhou, Mudan.(2014).Trends in Dryness Index Based on Potential Evapotranspiration and Precipitation over 1961-2099 in Xinjiang, China.ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY.
MLA Li, Yi,et al."Trends in Dryness Index Based on Potential Evapotranspiration and Precipitation over 1961-2099 in Xinjiang, China".ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY (2014).
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