Arid
DOI10.1016/j.rser.2012.11.082
Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution
Hernandez-Moro, J.; Martinez-Duart, J. M.
通讯作者Martinez-Duart, J. M.
来源期刊RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS
ISSN1364-0321
出版年2013
卷号20页码:119-132
英文摘要

In this paper we first make a review of the past annual production of electricity and the cumulative installed capacity for photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. This together with the annual costs of PV modules and CSP systems allows us the determination of the experience curves and the corresponding learning rates. Then, we go over a rigorous exposition of the methodology employed for the calculation of the value of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for PV and CSP. Based on this knowledge, we proceed to establish a mathematical model which yields closed-form analytical expressions for the present value of the LCOE, as well as its future evolution (2010-2050) based on the International Energy Agency roadmaps for the cumulative installed capacity. Next, we explain in detail how specific values are assigned to the twelve independent variables which enter the LCOE formula: solar resource, discount and learning rates, initial cost and lifetime of the system, operational and maintenance costs, etc. With all this background, and making use of a simple computer simulation program, we can generate the following: sensitivity analysis curves, graphs on the evolution of the LCOE in the period 2010-2050, and calculations of the years at which grid parities will be reached. These representations prove to be very useful in energy planning policies, like tariff-in schemes, tax exemptions, etc., and in making investment decisions, since they allow, for a given location, to directly compare the costs of PV vs CSP power generation technologies for the period 2010-2050. Among solar technologies, PV seems always more appropriate for areas located in middle to high latitudes of the Earth, while CSP systems, preferably with thermal storage incorporated, yield their best performance in arid areas located at relatively low latitudes. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词LCOE Concentrating solar power Photovoltaic Grid parities Solar electricity costs Renewable energy economics
类型Review
语种英语
国家Spain
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000316828300011
WOS关键词POWER CSP ; EXPERIENCE CURVES ; LEVELIZED COST ; LEARNING-CURVE ; ENERGY ; PHOTOVOLTAICS ; TECHNOLOGY ; SYSTEMS ; PLANTS ; LIFE
WOS类目Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Energy & Fuels
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Energy & Fuels
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/179745
作者单位Univ Autonoma Madrid, Appl Phys Dept C 12, E-28049 Madrid, Spain
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GB/T 7714
Hernandez-Moro, J.,Martinez-Duart, J. M.. Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution[J],2013,20:119-132.
APA Hernandez-Moro, J.,&Martinez-Duart, J. M..(2013).Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution.RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS,20,119-132.
MLA Hernandez-Moro, J.,et al."Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution".RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS 20(2013):119-132.
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