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In semi-arid regions of the United States, Pyrenophora semeniperda kills seeds of the winter annual Bromus tectorum. We report on pathosystem outcomes under manipulated water potential and temperature environments commonly observed within semi-arid environments for dormant and non-dormant seeds. We propose a range of outcomes for infected seeds. During summer, seeds remain dormant and are killed across a range of water potentials. During autumn, seeds survive by rapidly germinating or are killed if radicle emergence is delayed by intermittent hydration. In winter/spring, secondarily dormant seeds can be killed by the fungus. The only likely scenarios where seeds escape death include absence of infection (autumn, spring, or following autumn, germination) or infection in autumn when seeds germinate rapidly.