Arid
DOI10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.05.019
Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain
Carmona, Gema1; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo1; Bromley, John2
通讯作者Carmona, Gema
来源期刊JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
ISSN0301-4797
EISSN1095-8630
出版年2013
卷号128页码:400-412
英文摘要

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each other’s views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Participatory modelling Bayesian networks Water management IWRM
类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain ; England
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000326203400045
WOS关键词SIMULATE YIELD RESPONSE ; FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS ; FAO CROP MODEL ; PUBLIC-PARTICIPATION ; BAYESIAN NETWORKS ; RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ; FOREST MANAGEMENT ; BELIEF NETWORKS ; FRAMEWORK ; CONFLICT
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构University of Oxford
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/178285
作者单位1.Univ Politecn Madrid, ETSI Agron, Dept Econ & CC Sociales Agr, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;
2.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford Water Futures Programme, Oxford OX1 3QY, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Carmona, Gema,Varela-Ortega, Consuelo,Bromley, John. Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain[J]. University of Oxford,2013,128:400-412.
APA Carmona, Gema,Varela-Ortega, Consuelo,&Bromley, John.(2013).Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,128,400-412.
MLA Carmona, Gema,et al."Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 128(2013):400-412.
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