Arid
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00683.1
CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States
Yuan, Xing; Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Pan, Ming
通讯作者Yuan, Xing
来源期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
出版年2013
卷号26期号:13页码:4828-4847
英文摘要

There is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate model-based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP’s operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and its previous version, CFSv1, to investigate the value of climate models by conducting a set of 27-yr seasonal hydroclimatic hindcasts over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation R-2 and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO have further improvements over southern basins out to 4 months. Verification of streamflow forecasts over 1734 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauges shows that CFSv2 has moderately smaller error than ESP, but all three approaches have limited added skill against climatology beyond 1 month because of overforecasting or underdispersion errors. Using a postprocessor, 60%-70% of probabilistic streamflow forecasts are more skillful than climatology. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over the central United States out to 6 months, and climate models provide better results over the central and eastern United States. The R-2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur in different seasons for different basins. The R-2 of drought severity accumulated over CONUS is higher during winter, and climate models present added value, especially at long leads. This study indicates that climate models can provide better seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts than ESP through appropriate downscaling procedures, but significant improvements are dependent on the variables, seasons, and regions.


英文关键词Streamflow Drought Rainfall Forecast verification skill Hindcasts Seasonal forecasting
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000321259000027
WOS关键词SOIL-MOISTURE ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; DROUGHT ; PREDICTION ; SYSTEM ; SKILL ; STREAMFLOW
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/178211
作者单位Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Yuan, Xing,Wood, Eric F.,Roundy, Joshua K.,et al. CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States[J],2013,26(13):4828-4847.
APA Yuan, Xing,Wood, Eric F.,Roundy, Joshua K.,&Pan, Ming.(2013).CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,26(13),4828-4847.
MLA Yuan, Xing,et al."CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 26.13(2013):4828-4847.
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