Arid
DOI10.1002/ece3.873
Eucalypts face increasing climate stress
Butt, Nathalie1,2; Pollock, Laura J.3; McAlpine, Clive A.4,5
通讯作者Butt, Nathalie
来源期刊ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
ISSN2045-7758
出版年2013
卷号3期号:15页码:5011-5022
英文摘要

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long-lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species’ distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n=108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid-range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east-west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure.


英文关键词Climatic stress eucalypts forest ecosystems rainfall seasonality range shifts
类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000327961500013
WOS关键词RANGE ; PROJECTIONS ; DIEBACK
WOS类目Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/176759
作者单位1.Univ Queensland, ARC Ctr Excellence Environm Decis, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia;
2.Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia;
3.Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Natl Environm Res Program, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia;
4.Univ Queensland, Natl Environm Res Program, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia;
5.Univ Queensland, Sch Geog Planning & Environm Management, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Butt, Nathalie,Pollock, Laura J.,McAlpine, Clive A.. Eucalypts face increasing climate stress[J],2013,3(15):5011-5022.
APA Butt, Nathalie,Pollock, Laura J.,&McAlpine, Clive A..(2013).Eucalypts face increasing climate stress.ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,3(15),5011-5022.
MLA Butt, Nathalie,et al."Eucalypts face increasing climate stress".ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 3.15(2013):5011-5022.
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