Arid
DOI10.1007/s10584-013-0820-6
Relationship between projected changes in future climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain
Lloret, F.1,2; Martinez-Vilalta, J.1,2; Serra-Diaz, J. M.3; Ninyerola, M.3
通讯作者Lloret, F.
来源期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
出版年2013
卷号120期号:1-2页码:449-462
英文摘要

The response of plant species to future climate conditions is probably dependent on their ecological characteristics, including climatic niche, demographic rates and functional traits. Using forest inventory data from 27 dominant woody species in Spanish forests, we explore the relationships between species characteristics and projected changes in their average climatic suitability (occurrence of suitable climatic conditions for a species in a given territory) obtained by empirical niche-based models, under a business-as-usual climate change scenario (A1, HadCM3, 2001-2100). We hypothesize that most species will suffer a decline in climatic suitability, with a less severe for species (i) currently living in more arid climates or exhibiting a broader current climatic niche; (ii) with higher current growth rates; (iii) with functional traits related to resistance to water deficits. The analysis confirm our hypothesis since apart from a few Mediterranean species, most species decrease their climatic suitability in the region under future climate, characterized by increased aridity. Also, species living in warmer locations or under a wider range of climatic conditions tend to experience less decrease in climatic suitability. As hypothesized, a positive relationship was detected between current relative growth rates and increase in future climatic suitability. Nevertheless, current tree mortality did not correlate with changes in future climatic suitability. In contrast with our hypothesis, functional traits did not show a clear relationship with changes in climate suitability; instead species often presented idiosyncratic responses that, in some cases, could reflect past management. These results suggest that the extrapolation of species performance to future climatic scenarios based on current patterns of dominance is constrained by factors other than species autoecology, particularly human activity.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000323276900031
WOS关键词PROCESS-BASED MODELS ; RANGE SHIFTS ; PLANT ECOLOGY ; SCOTS PINE ; DROUGHT ; VEGETATION ; NICHE ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTIONS ; PATTERNS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/176472
作者单位1.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Ctr Ecol Res & Forestry Applicat CREAF, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain;
2.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Anim Biol Plant Biol & Ecol, Ecol Unit, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain;
3.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Anim Biol Plant Biol & Ecol, Bot Unit, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lloret, F.,Martinez-Vilalta, J.,Serra-Diaz, J. M.,et al. Relationship between projected changes in future climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain[J],2013,120(1-2):449-462.
APA Lloret, F.,Martinez-Vilalta, J.,Serra-Diaz, J. M.,&Ninyerola, M..(2013).Relationship between projected changes in future climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain.CLIMATIC CHANGE,120(1-2),449-462.
MLA Lloret, F.,et al."Relationship between projected changes in future climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain".CLIMATIC CHANGE 120.1-2(2013):449-462.
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