Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0041010 |
Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data | |
Dakos, Vasilis1,2; Carpenter, Stephen R.3; Brock, William A.4; Ellison, Aaron M.5; Guttal, Vishwesha6; Ives, Anthony R.7; Kefi, Sonia8; Livina, Valerie9; Seekell, David A.10; van Nes, Egbert H.1; Scheffer, Marten1 | |
通讯作者 | Dakos, Vasilis |
来源期刊 | PLOS ONE
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ISSN | 1932-6203 |
出版年 | 2012 |
卷号 | 7期号:7 |
英文摘要 | Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ’early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands ; Spain ; USA ; India ; France ; England |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000306507000052 |
WOS关键词 | CRITICAL SLOWING-DOWN ; REGIME SHIFTS ; CATASTROPHIC SHIFTS ; LEADING INDICATOR ; STATES ; DESERTIFICATION ; ECOSYSTEMS ; ESTIMATORS ; VEGETATION ; STABILITY |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
来源机构 | French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/174538 |
作者单位 | 1.Wageningen Univ, Dept Aquat Ecol & Water Qual Management, Wageningen, Netherlands; 2.Estn Biol Donana, Integrat Ecol Grp, Seville, Spain; 3.Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 4.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Econ, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 5.Harvard Univ, Petersham, MA USA; 6.Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Ecol Sci, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India; 7.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Zool, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 8.Univ Montpellier 2, CNRS, Inst Sci Evolut, Montpellier, France; 9.Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; 10.Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dakos, Vasilis,Carpenter, Stephen R.,Brock, William A.,et al. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data[J]. French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development,2012,7(7). |
APA | Dakos, Vasilis.,Carpenter, Stephen R..,Brock, William A..,Ellison, Aaron M..,Guttal, Vishwesha.,...&Scheffer, Marten.(2012).Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data.PLOS ONE,7(7). |
MLA | Dakos, Vasilis,et al."Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data".PLOS ONE 7.7(2012). |
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