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DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0041010
Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data
Dakos, Vasilis1,2; Carpenter, Stephen R.3; Brock, William A.4; Ellison, Aaron M.5; Guttal, Vishwesha6; Ives, Anthony R.7; Kefi, Sonia8; Livina, Valerie9; Seekell, David A.10; van Nes, Egbert H.1; Scheffer, Marten1
通讯作者Dakos, Vasilis
来源期刊PLOS ONE
ISSN1932-6203
出版年2012
卷号7期号:7
英文摘要

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ’early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Netherlands ; Spain ; USA ; India ; France ; England
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000306507000052
WOS关键词CRITICAL SLOWING-DOWN ; REGIME SHIFTS ; CATASTROPHIC SHIFTS ; LEADING INDICATOR ; STATES ; DESERTIFICATION ; ECOSYSTEMS ; ESTIMATORS ; VEGETATION ; STABILITY
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源机构French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/174538
作者单位1.Wageningen Univ, Dept Aquat Ecol & Water Qual Management, Wageningen, Netherlands;
2.Estn Biol Donana, Integrat Ecol Grp, Seville, Spain;
3.Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA;
4.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Econ, Madison, WI 53706 USA;
5.Harvard Univ, Petersham, MA USA;
6.Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Ecol Sci, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India;
7.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Zool, Madison, WI 53706 USA;
8.Univ Montpellier 2, CNRS, Inst Sci Evolut, Montpellier, France;
9.Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England;
10.Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Dakos, Vasilis,Carpenter, Stephen R.,Brock, William A.,et al. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data[J]. French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development,2012,7(7).
APA Dakos, Vasilis.,Carpenter, Stephen R..,Brock, William A..,Ellison, Aaron M..,Guttal, Vishwesha.,...&Scheffer, Marten.(2012).Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data.PLOS ONE,7(7).
MLA Dakos, Vasilis,et al."Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data".PLOS ONE 7.7(2012).
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