Arid
DOI10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000478
Quadrangle Downscaling of Global Climate Models and Application to Riyadh
Sen, Zekai1; Al Alsheikh, A.2; Alamoud, A. S. A. M.2; Al-Hamid, A. A.2; El-Sebaay, A. S.3; Abu-Risheh, A. W.3
通讯作者Sen, Zekai
来源期刊JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE ENGINEERING
ISSN0733-9437
EISSN1943-4774
出版年2012
卷号138期号:10页码:918-923
英文摘要

Climate change impact reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are well established throughout the world. By now many local, regional, and central authorities are aware of these impacts and they try to take necessary precautions according to their environmental circumstances. Preliminary decisions cannot be taken unless there is a model for future climate change impacts, especially for rainfall occurrence, amount, and frequency estimations. The main purpose is to combine the general circulation (climate) model (GCM) outputs with the local meteorology station records by a suitable downscaling procedure. In this paper, a statistical quadrangle downscaling model (QDM) is developed for rainfall estimations up to 2100. This model helps to downscale the nearby four scenario rainfall amounts at GCM grids to a desired point. Two main steps in the model structure are the use of a regional dependence function (RDF) for transferring the GCM output data from the four nearest grid points to the location. The second step is to adjust the downscaled scenario monthly rainfalls with the local rainfall records. The GCM monthly rainfall outputs are downloaded from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) with special report emission scenario A2. The application of the methodology is presented for Riyadh City, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The RDF is obtained from the most reliable meteorology records at 27 locations that are irregularly scattered all over the country. Then it is used for scenario data transfer from the regular grid points. The adjustment is based on the average statistical properties of concurrent monthly rainfall amounts between 1985 and 1996. The trend component in the GCM remains intact. It has been observed that there is a major increasing trend in the monthly rainfalls after 2050. In the meantime, each decade starting from 2011 gives estimates that indicate steady rainfall increases up to 2050. The QDM indicates a 40% increase in the annual total rainfall amounts, with a 15% standard deviation increase. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000478. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.


英文关键词Arid region Climate change Downscaling Estimation Rainfall Riyadh Scenario Statistics Saudi Arabia Water
类型Article
语种英语
国家Turkey ; Saudi Arabia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000312724300006
WOS关键词WATER-RESOURCES ; PRECIPITATION ; SCENARIOS
WOS类目Agricultural Engineering ; Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Agriculture ; Engineering ; Water Resources
来源机构King Saud University
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/173736
作者单位1.Istanbul Tech Univ, Fac Civil Engn, Hydraul & Water Resources Div, TR-34469 Istanbul, Turkey;
2.King Saud Univ, Coll Agr, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia;
3.King Saud Univ, Prince Sultan Res Ctr Environm Water & Desert, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Sen, Zekai,Al Alsheikh, A.,Alamoud, A. S. A. M.,et al. Quadrangle Downscaling of Global Climate Models and Application to Riyadh[J]. King Saud University,2012,138(10):918-923.
APA Sen, Zekai,Al Alsheikh, A.,Alamoud, A. S. A. M.,Al-Hamid, A. A.,El-Sebaay, A. S.,&Abu-Risheh, A. W..(2012).Quadrangle Downscaling of Global Climate Models and Application to Riyadh.JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE ENGINEERING,138(10),918-923.
MLA Sen, Zekai,et al."Quadrangle Downscaling of Global Climate Models and Application to Riyadh".JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE ENGINEERING 138.10(2012):918-923.
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