Arid
Regional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran
Roshan, Gh. R.1; Grab, S. W.2
通讯作者Roshan, Gh. R.
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION
ISSN1735-6814
EISSN1735-8043
出版年2012
卷号6期号:2页码:239-265
英文摘要

We simulate the effect of climate change on water requirements of cold season wheat in various climatic zones of Iran. The research considers both observed climate (temperature and precipitation) changes during recent decades (1960-2009) based on instrumental records and projected future changes to 2100 based on the MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 compound model. 20 General Circulation models are used based on a single scenario known as P50, which is the average of SRES or emission scenarios. Results indicate that whilst winter precipitation has marginally increased across the country as a whole, a significant decline in mean spring precipitation is recorded between 1960 and 2009. However, considerable variability in trends is measured across various climatic regions of Iran. Mean annual temperature / rainfall changes in the various climate zones of Iran for the period 1960-2009 follow: +0.1 degrees C, / decade / +0.43 mm / decade in arid regions, -0.1 degrees C / decade / -1.7 mm / decade in semi-arid regions, +0.1 degrees C / decade / -1.33 mm / decade in Mediterranean / semi-humid regions and -0.01 degrees C / decade / -0.04 mm / decade in humid / hyper humid regions. Temperature projections to 2100 indicate an overall temperature rise of ca. 4.25 degrees C relative to that for 1961-1990, with increases projected for all climatic regions of Iran. Despite an overall projected mean precipitation increase of 36% for the year 2100, relative to that for 1961-1990, these are insufficient to compensate for temperature increases. Consequently, calculated water deficits during the growing season (autumn to spring) in Iran’s wheat producing areas are expected to increase from 5.2% in 1980 to over 23% by 2050 and 38% by 2100.


英文关键词Simulation GCM Water requirement Wheat Autumn Iran
类型Article
语种英语
国家Iran ; South Africa
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000301892600007
WOS关键词GLOBAL CHANGE ; WINTER-WHEAT ; MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT ; UNITED-STATES ; ELEVATED CO2 ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATION ; TRENDS ; CROPS ; YIELD
WOS类目Agronomy
WOS研究方向Agriculture
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/172972
作者单位1.Golestan Univ, Dept Geog, Gorgan, Iran;
2.Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog Archaeol & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Roshan, Gh. R.,Grab, S. W.. Regional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran[J],2012,6(2):239-265.
APA Roshan, Gh. R.,&Grab, S. W..(2012).Regional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION,6(2),239-265.
MLA Roshan, Gh. R.,et al."Regional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION 6.2(2012):239-265.
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