Arid
DOI10.1007/s10531-012-0346-7
Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change
de Oliveira, Guilherme1,2; Araujo, Miguel Bastos3,4,5; Rangel, Thiago Fernado1; Alagador, Diogo4; Felizola Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre1
通讯作者de Oliveira, Guilherme
来源期刊BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION
ISSN0960-3115
EISSN1572-9710
出版年2012
卷号21期号:11页码:2913-2926
英文摘要

The Caatinga is a semiarid biome of the northeast of Brazil with only 1 % of its territory currently conserved. The biome’s biodiversity is highly threatened due to exposure to land conversion for agricultural and cattle ranch. Climate forecasts predict increases in aridity, which could pose additional threats to the biome’s biodiversity. Here, we ask if the remnants of natural vegetation in Caatinga biome, where endemic terrestrial vertebrate species occur, are likely to retain more climatic suitability under climate change scenarios than other less pristine areas of the biome. In order to assess changes in climate suitability across individual species ranges, ensemble forecasting was used based on seven bioclimatic envelope models, three atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, and two greenhouse emission gas scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080. We found that most species will gain climatic suitability in the natural vegetation remnants of the Caatinga. Such gains are even greater than the expected to occur within random sets of areas with size similar to the natural vegetation remnants. Our results suggest that natural vegetation remnants will likely play a role of climate refuges for endemic vertebrate species, so efforts should be concentrated in these regions.


英文关键词Ensemble of forecasts Species climatic suitability Natural vegetation remnants Endemic vertebrates
类型Article
语种英语
国家Brazil ; Spain ; Portugal ; Denmark
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000308544100012
WOS关键词CONSERVATION BIOGEOGRAPHY ; SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION ; NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ; GEOGRAPHICAL ECOLOGY ; EXTINCTION RISK ; MACROECOLOGY ; AREAS ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; BIODIVERSITY ; DESERTIFICATION
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/171537
作者单位1.Univ Fed Goias, Dept Ecol, Inst Ciencias Biol 1, Lab Ecol Teor & Sintese, BR-74001970 Goiania, Go, Brazil;
2.Univ Fed Goias, Programa Posgrad Ecol & Evolucao, BR-74001970 Goiania, Go, Brazil;
3.CSIC, Natl Museum Nat Hist, Dept Biodivers & Evolutionary Biol, Integrat Biol & Global Change Grp, E-28006 Madrid, Spain;
4.Univ Evora, CIBIO, Rui Nabeiro Biodivers Chair, P-7000 Evora, Portugal;
5.Univ Copenhagen, Dept Biol, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
de Oliveira, Guilherme,Araujo, Miguel Bastos,Rangel, Thiago Fernado,et al. Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change[J],2012,21(11):2913-2926.
APA de Oliveira, Guilherme,Araujo, Miguel Bastos,Rangel, Thiago Fernado,Alagador, Diogo,&Felizola Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre.(2012).Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change.BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION,21(11),2913-2926.
MLA de Oliveira, Guilherme,et al."Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change".BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION 21.11(2012):2913-2926.
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