Arid
DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.07.019
Statistical downscaling of climate forecast system seasonal predictions for the Southeastern Mediterranean
Wu, Wanli1; Liu, Yubao1; Ge, Ming1; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita2; Descombes, Gael1; Kunin, Pavel3; Warner, Thomas1; Swerdlin, Scott1; Givati, Amir4; Hopson, Thomas1; Yates, David1
通讯作者Wu, Wanli
来源期刊ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN0169-8095
EISSN1873-2895
出版年2012
卷号118页码:346-356
英文摘要

Most of the annual rainfall in the Southeastern Mediterranean falls in the wet season from November to March. It is associated with Mediterranean cyclones, and is sensitive to climate variability. Predicting the wet season precipitation with a few months advance is highly valuable for water resource planning and climate-associated risk management in this semi-arid region. The regional water resource managements and climate-sensitive economic activities have relied on seasonal forecasts from global climate prediction centers. However due to their coarse resolutions, global seasonal forecasts lack regional and local scale information required by regional and local water resource managements. In this study, an analog statistical-downscaling algorithm, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), was introduced to bridge the gap between the coarse forecasts from global models and the needed fine-scale information for the Southeastern Mediterranean. The algorithm, driven by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) operational forecast and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis, provides monthly precipitations at 2-4 months of lead-time at 18 stations within the major regional hydrological basins. Large-scale predictors for KNN were objectively determined by the correlations between the station historic daily precipitation and variables in reanalysis and CFS reforecast. Besides a single deterministic forecast, this study constructed sixty ensemble members for probabilistic estimates. The KNN algorithm demonstrated its robustness when validated with NCEP/DOE reanalysis from 1981 to 2009 as hindcasts before applied to downscale CFS forecasts. The downscaled predictions show fine-scale information, such as station-to-station variability. The verification against observations shows improved skills of this downscaling utility relative to the CFS model. The KNN-based downscaling system has been in operation for the Israel Water Authority predicting precipitation and driving hydrologic models estimating river flow and aquifer charge for water supply. Published by Elsevier B.V.


英文关键词Climate model Seasonal prediction Statistical downscaling Southeastern Mediterranean k-Nearest neighbors Ensemble forecast
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA ; Israel
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000310386100027
WOS关键词MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; EVENTS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/171477
作者单位1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Res Applicat Lab, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;
2.Israel Inst Biol Res, Ness Ziona, Israel;
3.Life Sci Res Inst, Haifa, Israel;
4.Israel Water Author, Hadera, Israel
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Wu, Wanli,Liu, Yubao,Ge, Ming,et al. Statistical downscaling of climate forecast system seasonal predictions for the Southeastern Mediterranean[J],2012,118:346-356.
APA Wu, Wanli.,Liu, Yubao.,Ge, Ming.,Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita.,Descombes, Gael.,...&Yates, David.(2012).Statistical downscaling of climate forecast system seasonal predictions for the Southeastern Mediterranean.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,118,346-356.
MLA Wu, Wanli,et al."Statistical downscaling of climate forecast system seasonal predictions for the Southeastern Mediterranean".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 118(2012):346-356.
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