Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.07.019 |
Statistical downscaling of climate forecast system seasonal predictions for the Southeastern Mediterranean | |
Wu, Wanli1; Liu, Yubao1; Ge, Ming1; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita2; Descombes, Gael1; Kunin, Pavel3; Warner, Thomas1; Swerdlin, Scott1; Givati, Amir4; Hopson, Thomas1; Yates, David1 | |
通讯作者 | Wu, Wanli |
来源期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2012 |
卷号 | 118页码:346-356 |
英文摘要 | Most of the annual rainfall in the Southeastern Mediterranean falls in the wet season from November to March. It is associated with Mediterranean cyclones, and is sensitive to climate variability. Predicting the wet season precipitation with a few months advance is highly valuable for water resource planning and climate-associated risk management in this semi-arid region. The regional water resource managements and climate-sensitive economic activities have relied on seasonal forecasts from global climate prediction centers. However due to their coarse resolutions, global seasonal forecasts lack regional and local scale information required by regional and local water resource managements. In this study, an analog statistical-downscaling algorithm, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), was introduced to bridge the gap between the coarse forecasts from global models and the needed fine-scale information for the Southeastern Mediterranean. The algorithm, driven by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) operational forecast and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis, provides monthly precipitations at 2-4 months of lead-time at 18 stations within the major regional hydrological basins. Large-scale predictors for KNN were objectively determined by the correlations between the station historic daily precipitation and variables in reanalysis and CFS reforecast. Besides a single deterministic forecast, this study constructed sixty ensemble members for probabilistic estimates. The KNN algorithm demonstrated its robustness when validated with NCEP/DOE reanalysis from 1981 to 2009 as hindcasts before applied to downscale CFS forecasts. The downscaled predictions show fine-scale information, such as station-to-station variability. The verification against observations shows improved skills of this downscaling utility relative to the CFS model. The KNN-based downscaling system has been in operation for the Israel Water Authority predicting precipitation and driving hydrologic models estimating river flow and aquifer charge for water supply. Published by Elsevier B.V. |
英文关键词 | Climate model Seasonal prediction Statistical downscaling Southeastern Mediterranean k-Nearest neighbors Ensemble forecast |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA ; Israel |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000310386100027 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/171477 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Res Applicat Lab, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Israel Inst Biol Res, Ness Ziona, Israel; 3.Life Sci Res Inst, Haifa, Israel; 4.Israel Water Author, Hadera, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wu, Wanli,Liu, Yubao,Ge, Ming,et al. Statistical downscaling of climate forecast system seasonal predictions for the Southeastern Mediterranean[J],2012,118:346-356. |
APA | Wu, Wanli.,Liu, Yubao.,Ge, Ming.,Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita.,Descombes, Gael.,...&Yates, David.(2012).Statistical downscaling of climate forecast system seasonal predictions for the Southeastern Mediterranean.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,118,346-356. |
MLA | Wu, Wanli,et al."Statistical downscaling of climate forecast system seasonal predictions for the Southeastern Mediterranean".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 118(2012):346-356. |
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