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DOI10.1111/j.1461-9563.2011.00566.x
Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California
Gutierrez, Andrew P.1,2; Ponti, Luigi1,3; Cooper, Monica L.4; Gilioli, Gianni1,5; Baumgaertner, Johann1,6; Duso, Carlo7
通讯作者Gutierrez, Andrew P.
来源期刊AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENTOMOLOGY
ISSN1461-9555
出版年2012
卷号14期号:3页码:225-238
英文摘要

1 The polyphagous European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) is the principal native pest of grape berries in the Palearctic region. It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication programme. The present study aimed to assess prospectively its potential geographical distribution and relative abundance in California and the continental U.S.A. A subsidiary goal was to provide explanation for timing control measures. 2 Data from the European literature were used to formulate and parameterize a holistic physiologically-based demographic model for L. botrana. This model was linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine phenology, growth and development that provides the bottom-up effects of fruiting phenology, age and abundance on L. botrana dynamics. Fruit age affects larval developmental rates, and has carryover effects on pupal development and adult fecundity. Also included in the model were the effects of temperature on developmental, survival and fecundity rates. 3 Observed daily weather data were used to simulate the potential distribution of the moth in California, and the continental U.S.A. The relative total number of pupae per vine per year was used as the metric of favourability at all locations. The simulation data were mapped using grass gis (). 4 The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favourability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. 5 The effects of a warmer climate on pest abundance were explored by increasing observed mean temperatures 2 degrees and 3 degrees C. L. botrana abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley but to decrease in the hot deserts of southern California where summer temperatures would approach its upper thermal limit. 6 Analysis of the timing of mating disruption pheromone for control of L. botrana suggests the greatest benefit would accrue by targeting adults emerging from winter diapause pupae and the flight of first summer adults.


英文关键词Distribution and abundance GIS grape invasive species Lobesia botrana pheromones population dynamics
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA ; Italy
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000306307100001
WOS关键词MATING DISRUPTION ; REPRODUCTIVE OUTPUT ; TORTRICIDAE LARVAE ; FLIGHT ACTIVITY ; HOST-PLANT ; LEPIDOPTERA ; TEMPERATURE ; VINEYARDS ; MODELS ; SPAIN
WOS类目Entomology
WOS研究方向Entomology
来源机构University of California, Berkeley
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/171039
作者单位1.Ctr Anal Sustainable Agr Syst CASAS Global NGO, Kensington, CA 94707 USA;
2.Univ Calif Berkeley, Coll Nat Resources, Div Ecosyst Sci, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;
3.Ctr Ric Casaccia, Agenzia Nazl Nuove Tecnol Energia & Sviluppo Econ, Lab Gest Sostenibile Agroecosistemi UTAGRI ECO, I-00123 Rome, Italy;
4.Univ Calif, Napa, CA 94559 USA;
5.Univ Brescia, Dipartimento Sci & Biomed & Biotecnol, I-25123 Brescia, Italy;
6.Univ Milan, Dipartimento Protez Sistemi Urbani Agroalimentari, I-20133 Milan, Italy;
7.Univ Padua, Dipartimento Agron Ambientale & Prod Vegetali, I-35020 Legnaro, PD, Italy
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gutierrez, Andrew P.,Ponti, Luigi,Cooper, Monica L.,et al. Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California[J]. University of California, Berkeley,2012,14(3):225-238.
APA Gutierrez, Andrew P.,Ponti, Luigi,Cooper, Monica L.,Gilioli, Gianni,Baumgaertner, Johann,&Duso, Carlo.(2012).Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENTOMOLOGY,14(3),225-238.
MLA Gutierrez, Andrew P.,et al."Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENTOMOLOGY 14.3(2012):225-238.
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