Arid
DOI10.1007/s12040-011-0079-0
Uncertainties in downscaled relative humidity for a semi-arid region in India
Anandhi, Aavudai
通讯作者Anandhi, Aavudai
来源期刊JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE
ISSN0253-4126
EISSN0973-774X
出版年2011
卷号120期号:3页码:375-386
英文摘要

Monthly scenarios of relative humidity (R-H) were obtained for the Malaprabha river basin in India using a statistical downscaling technique. Large-scale atmospheric variables (air temperature and specific humidity at 925 mb, surface air temperature and latent heat flux) were chosen as predictors. The predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis dataset for the period 1978-2000, and (2) simulations of the third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The objective of this study was to investigate the uncertainties in regional scenarios developed for R-H due to the choice of emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT) and the predictors selected. Multi-linear regression with stepwise screening is the downscaling technique used in this study. To study the uncertainty in the regional scenarios of R-H, due to the selected predictors, eight sets of predictors were chosen and a downscaling model was developed for each set. Performance of the downscaling models in the baseline period (1978-2000) was studied using three measures (1) Nash-Sutcliffe error estimate (E-f), (2) mean absolute error (MAE), and (3) product moment correlation (P). Results show that the performances vary between 0.59 and 0.68, 0.42 and 0.50 and 0.77 and 0.82 for E-f, MAE and P. Cumulative distribution functions were prepared from the regional scenarios of R-H developed for combinations of predictors and emission scenarios. Results show a variation of 1 to 6% R-H in the scenarios developed for combination of predictor sets for baseline period. For a future period (2001-2100), a variation of 6 to 15% R-H was observed for the combination of emission scenarios and predictors. The variation was highest for A2 scenario and least for COMMIT and B1 scenario.


英文关键词Climate change downscaling hydroclimatology relative humidity multi-step linear regression Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) Malaprabha river basin
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000293098500004
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; REANALYSIS ; PREDICTION ; SCENARIOS ; WEATHER
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Geology ; Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/169057
作者单位(1)CUNY, CUNY Inst Sustainable Cities, New York, NY 10065 USA
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Anandhi, Aavudai. Uncertainties in downscaled relative humidity for a semi-arid region in India[J],2011,120(3):375-386.
APA Anandhi, Aavudai.(2011).Uncertainties in downscaled relative humidity for a semi-arid region in India.JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE,120(3),375-386.
MLA Anandhi, Aavudai."Uncertainties in downscaled relative humidity for a semi-arid region in India".JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE 120.3(2011):375-386.
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